San Diego Union-Tribune (Sunday)
CAN SAN DIEGO GOVERNMENTS REVERSE POPULATION TRENDS?
ECONOMISTS YES
Long-term population forecasts are sensitive to underlying assumptions about migration patterns. If San Diego governments, along with state officials, make significant progress on expanding housing and improving affordability, the region will attract and retain more residents than are currently projected. This could lead to positive net domestic migration and allow the regional population to continue to grow. But without an improvement in housing affordability, a decline in population is a real possibility.
NO
Birth rates are declining severely, not just in San Diego and the United State, but around the world as well. The U.S. fertility rate is already below the replacement level, so that will lead to a shrinking of the country’s population. Making the situation worse for San Diego and California is the increasing prevalence of remote work, which allows people to work for local companies but live in places where housing is cheaper. The lack of land makes adding significant amounts of housing difficult.
YES
Job one is to allow more construction so people can afford to live here. The city has been taking some steps in the right direction but more needs to be done. The city and state also need to do more to help businesses, both large and small, to thrive here. That requires more progress on homelessness, crime, and overly burdensome regulations. San Diego can continue to lead the way in tech and biotech, the nation’s most vibrant sectors.
NO
There are just two sources of population growth: natural increase or births minus deaths and net in-migration. San Diego’s population is projected to peak 40 years before the rest of the nation (2080). Enhanced out-migration due to housing costs is the primary reason. Greater densities will slow but not reverse this trend. There is little policymakers can do to increase birth rates although the Japanese have tried. Foreign immigration is not large enough to make a difference.
People live where they want to, not where governments want them to live. As opposed to other Southwest and Midwest cities, San Diego has limited growth potential. Oceans, Mexico, Camp Pendleton and desert are limiting factors. We will always be an expensive area to live in due to these constraints. As U.S. immigration numbers grow, we will never be a top choice to settle. It will be a stretch for current San Diego kids to stay here.
San Diego governments can’t reverse population trends alone. It would require a significant overhaul of state and local policies and regulations. Unfortunately, that happening is unlikely. Lack of affordable housing, high utilities and gas prices, cumbersome regulations and policies, high taxes, and an unfriendly business environment are making California less appealing. As businesses and residents depart to other states with better business policies, cost of living and quality of life, it will affect future tax revenue and strain our state and local economy.
Better economic policies will encourage work and entrepreneurship and can attract new residents, even though California’s bad policies have eroded our geographic advantages. If we adopt some of the economic policies of our red-state neighbors and use immigration policy to get more experienced and skilled workers, we can improve our current direction. Start with a zero-based budget, reduce regulations, fees and taxes, and let’s not let the current leadership in Sacramento kill us!
They could but it would take a different approach. The key to growth is an affordable education, leading to a well-paying job that makes possible housing, raising families and continuing the cycle of growth. Unlike California, the areas that are growing are more attractive because of a better tax and regulatory environment, allowing for the creation of businesses and jobs. If we change, we can grow — if not, the more pessimistic projections are very likely.
Chris Van Gorder Scripps Health