WHAT IS DRIVING THE INTENSITY OF SANDERS SUPPORTERS? OUTRAGE

Bernie Sanders has said that he will support the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee, no matter who he or she is. But some Democrats worry that a lot of his backers will not vote for any other candidate.

In 2016, many of Sanders’s supporters were angry that Hillary Clinton won the Democratic nomination. According to one estimate, over 20% of Sanders voters declined to vote for Clinton — and they may well have thrown the election to Donald Trump. If past is prologue, then many Sanders supporters would act the same way in 2020, if he does not get the nomination. What’s the explanation?

Much of the answer lies in one word: outrage. Trump supporters and Sanders supporters have that, at least, in common. Their outrage is fueled by the dynamics of “group polarization,” which means that when like-minded people speak mostly with one another, they usually end up more confident and more unified — and more extreme. And if people begin with a degree of outrage, their interactions with one another will greatly intensify their feelings.

Whatever you think of Sanders, there is no doubt that outrage is sparking his campaign. Many of his supporters are disgusted with the political order. They see other candidates for the Democratic nomination not merely as inferior to Sanders, but on another side of the fundamental political divide.

While most of these voters would back any Democratic nominee over Trump in any case, a lot of them might not. People who feel high levels of outrage, or are drawn to “democratic socialism,” are especially likely to cast a protest vote, or stay at home, rather than engage in some calculation and conclude that by their own lights, any Democrat is preferable to Trump.

Sanders has a solid chance of winning the Democratic nomination. If he does, the supporters of the other candidates will have no choice but to embrace the outrage of his supporters — even if they fundamentally disagree with Sanders on some crucial questions.