U.S., RUSSIA TO TRY MORE DIPLOMACY
Washington to respond to Putin’s demands next week
The United States and Russia scaled back their confrontational rhetoric over Eastern European security Friday, agreeing to extend negotiations as the Biden administration pursues a fragile diplomatic path to averting a Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken told his Russian counterpart, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, in a meeting in Geneva that the United States would provide written responses next week to Russia’s demands that the West unwind its military presence in Eastern Europe.
Both sides said that the two diplomats planned to speak again after that, and they left the door open to another conversation between President Joe Biden and President Vladimir Putin to try to resolve the crisis.
Even as the threat of a Russian invasion remained real, the conciliatory tone and absence of ultimatums suggested that both sides were trying to keep tensions in check and give diplomacy time to play out. And the longer negotiating timeline stood in contrast to Biden’s comments two days earlier when he said he believed Putin was ready to use military force.
“We didn’t expect any breakthroughs to happen today,” Blinken told reporters after the meeting. “But I believe we are now on a clearer path in terms of understanding each other’s concerns.”
Lavrov described the talks as “a useful, honest discussion,” while Blinken called them “direct, businesslike” and “not polemical.” Lavrov largely refrained from the heated language
that other Russian officials had used after previous discussions this month, and he told reporters that Blinken had agreed “that it is necessary to have a more reasonable dialogue.”
“I hope the emotions subside a bit,” Lavrov said.
Still, Friday’s meeting was only one moment in a crisis, redolent of the Cold War’s worst times, that has been gathering for weeks. Analysts said the risks of a Russian invasion of Ukraine had not abated, with troops, tanks and missiles continuing to be shipped across Russia toward the Ukrainian border.
Ukraine’s military intelligence service estimates that 127,000 Russian troops are now deployed within attacking distance, including in
Ukraine’s northern neighbor, Belarus, where Belarusian and Russian forces will conduct joint military exercises next month.
Sam Charap, a Russian security analyst at the Rand Corp., said war was still not inevitable — but that he did not see any new signs Friday, despite the softer rhetoric, that Russia or the United States were ready to compromise on key issues that have proved intractable in previous negotiating sessions.
“It doesn’t look like either side is particularly interested in moving off the positions they were on a week ago,” Charap said.
Russia’s demands include a legally binding agreement to halt NATO’s eastward expansion, and a withdrawal of NATO troops from countries
like Poland and the Baltic nations that were once aligned with or part of the Soviet Union. The United States has dismissed those proposals as nonstarters, and Blinken reiterated after Friday’s meeting that Ukrainians had a “sovereign right” to “write their own future.”
“There is no trade space there — none,” said Blinken, who completed a whirlwind diplomatic trip to Europe on Friday, after stops in Ukraine’s capital Kyiv and in Berlin.
Still, Blinken said he believed there was a way to develop agreements with Russia “that ensure our mutual security.” In Washington, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Biden would travel to Camp David with his national security team
this weekend to discuss the situation.
“We will also continue to consult with our allies and partners, and we will respond next week in writing,” Psaki said.
Western officials had been watching the talks and hoping that a more measured approach would emerge. One note of optimism came from U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres, who was asked about the prospects of a Russian invasion of Ukraine in the hours after the Blinken-Lavrov meeting had concluded.
“I am convinced it will not happen, and I strongly hope I will be right,” Guterres told reporters at a news briefing at U.N. headquarters in New York. Guterres did not explain his reasons for taking that position.
After weeks of heated words, there were signs that both sides were trying to keep tensions in check and give diplomacy time. Their agreement Friday to keep negotiating extends a run of talks that started Dec. 30 with a phone call between Putin and Biden and continued with a series of three meetings across Europe last week that provided no breakthroughs but kept Russia from declaring it had no choice but to use force.
It is unclear who might benefit more from a delay if Russia does eventually invade Ukraine — a decision that U.S. officials believe Putin has not yet made. The United States might welcome more time to rally and coordinate allies and plan contingency options. But the Russians may value the appearance of an extended, good-faith diplomatic effort before any potential invasion, and may use the time to mobilize more troops.
Blinken’s acknowledgment that the United States would provide a written response to Russia’s demands was the clearest the Biden administration has been that it would fulfill this request. Senior U.S. officials said that the Kremlin’s insistence on written responses reflects the centralized nature of a system in which Putin holds overwhelming power and the government bureaucracy has limited influence. They believe Putin wants to see America’s specific position with his own eyes.
Lavrov repeated Russia’s denials that it had any plans to attack Ukraine and said he and Blinken had agreed to speak again after the United States provided its response. Putin has warned that Russia would take unspecified “military-technical” actions to ensure its security if the West did not agree to its demands.