Midseason report: It’s all about pitching
Winning Sunday didn’t change much.
It mostly meant it felt better when telling the truth.
“It’s a big encouragement for us,” left fielder Jurickson Profar said after the Padres came back in the ninth inning to beat the Dodgers 4-2. “I feel like we see that we’re a little far behind. If we want to win the World Series, if we want to go deep in the playoffs, this is a team that we have to keep up with, we have to beat. The first three games didn’t look so well. To get the win today feels great. A great encouragement to go forward and keep improving. We must improve.”
Three losses that started the series at Dodger Stadium did not negate what was a mostly positive first half of the season. But it did continue what has been a tough couple weeks in which the Padres lost 10 of 16 games to reach the midway point 47-34.
“Fairly consistent,” manager Bob Melvin said of his team’s performance in its first 81 games. “This was our worst stretch here. … We were 17 (games) above (.500), and you see that falling back and it concerns you a little bit. So to get this one obviously gets us back on the winning portion of it. You feel like there are a few out there all the time that you could have over the course of 81. But we’ve had some injuries, we still don’t have Tatis. We’re still in a good position. So we also have to look forward to the future and some of the guys that we have to come back.”
That’s the theme. It certainly has merit. Fernando Tatis Jr. has missed the entire season, Wil Myers has missed much of it, and significant bullpen pieces are expected back.
But being capable of getting better late was a theme in 2021 as well.
And the memory of what happened late last summer does nothing to alleviate a feeling for some that the Padres could be sinking.
So maybe what Sunday provided was a reminder that living day to day in a long season is foolish.
The halfway mark of a 162game season is a good time to take a step back and assess.
“I thought we’ve done a pretty good job of managing these games with obviously missing Tatis and not having Wil in there consistently, Manny (Machado) being out 10 days,” starting pitcher Joe Musgrove said. “I thought we’ve done good job of staying in games, winning a lot of close games.”
The Padres have the third-best record in the National League and would be the fourth seed if the postseason began today. They are 3½ games behind the Dodgers in the NL West.
Recent history says this is not firm ground. It took the Padres just a few dozen games to collapse last season, going from 6½ games up in the wild-card race on Aug. 11 to eliminated on Sept. 25.
Perhaps it isn’t fair to this group to keep recalling that team, which was 48-33 after 81 games. But many of the same players remain, and the onus is on them to show 2022 is different.
They know if they are not only to avoid a repeat spiral and actually challenge the Dodgers, they have some things they must do better and some things they need to keep doing well.
For starters
When Machado went down with an ankle injury June 19, the Padres talked about other hitters having to step up. More than that, though, they said the biggest reason they could weather his absence was the excellence of their starting pitching.
Really, that’s the story of the season.
Even if Tatis hits a home run in every one of the 55 or 60 games he ends up playing this season and Myers spends the better part of August and September on a heater, what sets the Padres apart likely won’t change.
“I don’t know how different we’re gonna be,” veteran reliever Craig Stammen said. “We’re going to have a few different players, but we’re still gonna be built around starting pitching and defense. That’s where we’re going to hang our
hats, and hopefully it lasts all the way through the season.”
As much as Machado was arguably the NL’s best player for a month-and-ahalf, the most valuable thing about the Padres has been the starting pitching.
They have gotten seven innings or more from their starters in 17 games, tied with the Astros and Marlins for most in the majors. They have received a major league-leading 43 quality starts.
They win a lot of games when not scoring a lot of runs. Their 38-10 record when allowing four or fewer runs is sixth best in the major leagues.
Sunday was the 32nd time the Padres have held their opponent to two or fewer runs. They are 30-2 in those games.
Too much work
What Musgrove said about it being impressive the Padres have won as much as they have without the bat of Tatis and others is true.
However, that is also a matter of phrasing.
Musgrove also framed the situation another way.
“Obviously, we’re not slugging the way that we can,” he said. “… Right now, we just don’t feel like we’re running out the offense that’s gonna do the most damage and the offense that we expect.”
The Padres’ 23-14 record in one-run games is fourth best in the major leagues and best in the NL. Their eight extra-inning victories are most in the majors. Their 17-19 record when their opponent scores first is second best in the majors.
Those numbers are as deceiving as they are indicative of anything.
Generally, the comebacks occur in the first few innings and are from one run down. They have come back from greater than a two-run deficit just three times. Sunday was just the second time the Padres won a game in which they trailed entering the ninth inning. Both times they have done it, the deciding run has come on a home run.
The Padres have just 67 of those, fewer than all but six teams in the majors. The Padres, remarkably, are tied for 10th in runs scored because they are just good enough often enough with
runners in scoring position and are among the league leaders in walks (fifth), sacrifice flies (fifth), sacrifice hits (10th) and being hit by pitches (10th). They have had more plate appearances than any other team.
As evidenced by what happened the first three days in L.A. and while losing three of four to Philadelphia late last month, as both the Phillies and Dodgers hit multiple homers, scrapping for runs is a difficult way to consistently beat good teams.
Get it together
One troubling characteristic of this Padres team is a similar drag to its offense as the one that never allowed them to take off in 2021.
Machado and one or two hitters will be hot (or at least warm) while everyone else is cold for a stretch of weeks at a time. Then the hot (or warm) hitters will cool off just as the cool hitters get hot (or warm).
Every one of their regulars besides Machado can have his season split in two right around the middle of May.
Eric Hosmer was one of the hottest hitters in the majors for the first five weeks of the season but has hit .204 with a sub-.550 OPS since. Ha-Seong Kim had a .766 OPS on May 15 and even with Sunday’s homer has a .608 OPS since.
Jurickson Profar was hitting .192 with a .696 OPS on May 19 and is hitting .288 with an .801 OPS since. Luke Voit spent time on the injured list and had a .599 OPS and two home runs on May 19 and has an .818 OPS and eight home runs since. Jake Cronenworth had a .602 OPS through June 3 and has a .945 OPS since. Trent Grisham was hitting .146 with a .493 OPS on May 21 and has hit .228 with a .720 OPS since. The team’s two catchers, Jorge Alfaro and Austin Nola, were batting a combined .230 with a .589 OPS on May 18 and have combined for a .280 average and .830 OPS since.
“Everyone has to be a little more consistent offensively,” Hosmer said. “Maybe we can get the whole group going at the same time. It’s been kind of two or three guys carrying the load with Manny at (different) points in time throughout the year. So maybe just getting a little more consistent offensively.”
Help is coming
Tatis is expected back at the end of the month. Myers could be back by the end of the week.
Two of the Padres’ best relievers — Pierce Johnson and left-hander Drew Pomeranz — are among the bullpen pieces expected to join the team by some time in August.
Further, the Padres are expected to be buyers before the Aug. 2 trade deadline.
Said Melvin: “We’re going to get better.”
We’ll see. It never happened last season.