CASES OF FLU UP, BUT FEW GETTING SHOTS
Some worry surge of influenza, coronavirus could strain area ERs
The flu season’s heralded early arrival this year does not appear to have motivated San Diego County residents to get vaccinated.
According to the county health department’s weekly respiratory disease report, nearly 495,000 flu shots have been given through the end of last week, about 79,000 fewer than was the case during the same period last year and about 25,000 fewer than the average over the previous four years.
Despite extensive publicity that the flu appears to be surging in the fall, rather than the winter, just as it did in Australia, concern does not appear to have been fierce enough to cause an increase in local vaccination rates. In fact, the number of vaccines administered last week fell slightly from the previous week, according to the county’s electronic vaccination registry.
The number of cases, meanwhile, continues to increase with 583 confirmed by testing last week, 34 times the prior five-year average of 17 cases. Coronavirus, now included with the flu in one weekly report, has continued a gradual downward trend, though fresh concerns of a new surge this winter are gaining traction.
As is the case with every respiratory illness, most who become infected do not become ill enough to seek health care attention and get tested, so flu case numbers vastly underestimate the amount of sickness in the community.
The true concern is the effect that a flu surge could have on already-strained health care resources. Last week saw the share of local emergency department visits exhibiting flu symptoms — fever, cough and/or sore throat — also increase, jumping from 4 percent to 5 percent.
Historically speaking, hospital emergency rooms have not reached the point where it becomes necessary to begin putting up triage tents in their parking lots to handle flu overflow until those numbers get significantly closer to double digits. But the trend, given that the five-year average for flu symptoms in ERs is only 2 percent, is already causing anxiety for the professionals working in ERs today.
Dr. Andres Smith, emergency department director at Sharp Chula Vista Medical Center, said Thursday that the increase in the number of flu cases arriving daily has picked up noticeably. While the volume is not yet overwhelming, it’s clear that the trend is headed in that direction.
Vaccination now, in addition to mask-wearing in social situations, is the best way to protect vulnerable family members and also the health care workers who find themselves in short supply every winter.
The influenza virus is capable of causing severe enough lung inflammation to put people in hospital beds, generally with deadly cases of pneumonia.
“Normally we see older people with conditions like diabetes and heart disease who are at the greatest risk and we see increases also in young children, infants and newborns,” Smith said. “That’s why vaccination is so important right now. It significantly decreases the chances of dying.”
The big fear is that flu might produce a surge of severe cases just as a new coronavirus wave arrives, clogging emergency departments.
While coronavirus is currently in decline in the United States and in San Diego, many experts are viewing the emergence of a new
“Vaccination is so important right now. It signif icantly decreases the chances of dying.”
Dr. Andres Smith • Sharp Chula Vista Medical Center
set of Omicron variants as potential trouble as fall turns to winter.
Scripps Research immunologist Kristian Andersen warned on Twitter Thursday that rising coronavirus hospitalization rates overseas, especially in Germany, France and Singapore, could presage a similar upward increase in the United States alongside the flu.
But calls for masking and vaccination are clearly being ignored. One look at the stands packed with fans for playoff Padres games makes it clear that covering up is not on the agenda. Uptake of the new retargeted coronavirus booster shot has likewise been underwhelming with a little over 200,000 doses dispensed in San Diego so far.
At the moment, the public seems perfectly content to behave as if COVID-19 is definitely over, prompting Andersen to caution: “Acting as if this isn’t going to be a problem would be unwise.”