DANGER LURKS IN CITY
Second of three-year series between Aztecs and Tritons new neighborhood game after SDSU-USD
Brian Dutcher is a nice guy, cognizant of being a good neighbor, supportive of local teams, committed to fostering community spirit, wanting to grow basketball in San Diego.
He also is the head coach at San Diego State, paid handsomely to win games and annually position his team for inclusion in the NCAA Tournament. Sometimes those aspirations conflict. They do again tonight, when his Aztecs (8-3) host UC San Diego at Viejas Arena in the second meeting of a threeyear series that replaced a decades-long series with USD. There is the argument that it’s the neighborly thing to do, playing at least one of the city’s other two
Division I programs on an annual basis. There is also the argument that the risk far outweighs the reward for a program of SDSU’s stature.
The Aztecs didn’t renew a USD series that stretched back more than a half-century for that reason, swapping it for a twofor-one arrangement with UCSD once it elevated to Div. I — two games at Viejas Arena in exchange for one at the Triton’s
LionTree Arena next season.
“I haven’t got the feeling of (it being like) the USD series yet because we haven’t been there (to LionTree),” said Dutcher, who had faced the Toreros in 21 straight seasons as an assistant or head coach. “When we go there a year from now, it will change the feel of the series, when we’re actually in their place and it’s a full house and they’re on us. Those are the things you remember about USD and how the environment was. Right now, they’ve only come to us.
“Not to say it’s not going to be competitive this year, but it will have more of a feel of a series when we finally return the game there. But it’s always a dangerous game when you play a crosstown team.
Whether it’s USD or UCSD, the game is dangerous for us.”
That’s a polite way of saying there’s no long-term commitment to either series.
One reason is the potential for conference realignment amid speculation that SDSU might join the Pac-12 beginning in 2024-25. That would mean a 20-game conference schedule plus the possibility of an annual “challenge series” with another league, reducing the number of nonconference dates.
The increased television revenue also could increase the basketball budget and alter its scheduling philosophy.
Most Pac-12 schools don’t engage in series that involve nonconference road games at programs outside the power conferences not named Gonzaga. Instead, they merely play “buy” games, where they pay a fee for a one-off game on their home floor.
Another reason is the metrics, which don’t compute for a crosstown, “little sister” game.
It’s not that UCSD (5-6) is ranked 283rd (out of 363 Div. I programs) in the NCAA’s NET metric, 294th in Kenpom, 307th in Sagarin, 330th in ESPN’s BPI. It’s that a pumped-up Tritons team — playing the best team on its schedule … before the largest crowd … in a 12,414-seat arena just miles from their campus — likely will look more like an 83 Kenpom team than 283 to everyone but the computers; the Aztecs still only get credit for facing 283.
Kenpom, for instance, gives the Tritons a 2 percent chance of victory on Tuesday and predicts a 79-56 loss. If the Tritons punch above their weight and lose by, say, 10 or 15 points, the
Aztecs will get punished in the metrics and drop.
If the Tritons win, well, it’s an anchor on SDSU’s résumé that could ultimately sink its NCAA Tournament chances, as a 53-48 loss to a USD team in the 330s did in 2015-16.
And who knows which Tritons team shows up at Viejas Arena — the one that
got blown out by USD 84-58 and barely squeaked by 2-13 Bethesda that a week later lost by 42 against a Div. III team, or the one that has won road games at George Washington and Eastern Michigan and nearly did at Nevada on Wednesday? Or whether SDSU starting post Nathan Mensah, who has been sick and missed several practices, suits up. Or whether the Aztecs are rusty from eight days between games for final exams.
It’s why a straight homeand-home series with USD — one game in each team’s building — no longer computed for Dutcher. USD balked at a two-for-one arrangement. UCSD, wanting to get the Aztecs in its building, took the deal.
Asked at a news conference earlier this season if he plans to revisit the USD series now that Steve Lavin is coach, Dutcher said, tellingly:
“I don’t have any plans right now to add USD to the schedule. We have another Div. I school in the city, UCSD, and they were willing to play us two-for-one. To get two home games and only one road game makes more sense to us. It would be different if USD was ranked and the metrics matched up. But for us to go into USD and have a sold-out crowd and run the risk of losing that game, if their (metrics) are in the 200s, doesn’t make sense.
“We would never do that with anybody else in the state. It’s no disrespect to him. I’m sure he will build it up to the point where it will be a conversation.
“But right now, with UCSD willing to play us twofor-one, it makes more sense to do that.”
It makes sense now. It might not in two years, for either team.
“In the same way that Dutch is going to see how things play out and evaluate what’s best for them,” Tritons coach Eric Olen said, “I think we’ll do the same in terms of, does that continue to make sense to us as we progress through our (Div. I) transition? Those are future conversations. I don’t have an answer for that right now.”