L.A. off to races, but Padres will find pace
Seven games back, already? What a bummer. This summer was supposed to be different.
Figuring we’d finally get an exciting National League West race that mattered, I’d made the Dodgers slight favorites but gave the Padres a fighting chance.
Blame it on a numbing Padres offense, blame it on the Dodgers f lexing their muscles. But now the Padres are playing for one of three wild cards.
The Padres and their fans should still have a lot of fun this season. The top hitters’ track records are too strong, the schedule ahead too favorable for the offense not to improve upon its uneven first quarter.
The Padres have shown they can pitch and defend, none of that a surprise. Assuming Manny Machado is healthy, he’ll begin to hit like Manny Machado.
Improving the offensive production at catcher, A.J. Preller will coax Fred Kendall, 74, back into brown and gold. I jest there, but the bigger challenge in the West race isn’t the Padres’ talent but the Dodgers’ aptitude.
L.A. can’t be expected to struggle for long, not only because of its marathon prowess but because there’s greater reward to winning a division than before the playoff format was changed two offseasons ago. With the NL Central resembling a tricycle race, the West champion will get to skip the postseason’s first round.
Not only have the Dodgers overcome massive depletion at shortstop to log the NL’s best record (26-15 heading into Monday) while introducing two homegrown rookies into the lineup, they boast a more advanced pool of pitching and hitting prospects in comparison to the Padres, according to seemingly everyone in baseball not associated with either team. So, L.A. should have the means to find rest for Clayton Kershaw, 35, and other veterans. It has the talent to make trades this summer. The Dodgers can counter Preller if — or is it when? — he packages 19-year-old shortstop Jackson Merrill in a move for yet another star.
If nothing else, the Padres’ offensive struggles amid high expectations have deepened fans’ appreciation for the 1998 Padres.
Players on the ’98 club knew ownership expected a big season from them. A public vote on ballpark funding loomed that November. In the offseason, Kevin Towers and Larry Lucchino had traded the franchise’s top prospect, Derrek Lee, for Kevin Brown. A proven ace, Brown was entering his contract year.
Brown alleviated pressure for every teammate. Hitters Greg Vaughn and Wally Joyner heated up fast, driving a 27-14 start that
was eight games ahead of the current club’s 41-game launch going into Monday night’s home game against the Royals (12-30).
Vaughn was something of a Juan Soto figure in that he was a slugging left fielder who, in July 1996, joined the Padres via a summer trade to a playoff contender. His arrival owed to a pair of clever trades, the first of which sent out pitcher Andy Benes, a former first overall draftee, for players who would bring Vaughn from the Brewers.
Vaughn hit 12 home runs, six doubles and three triples in amassing a .988 OPS through his first 40 games in 1998. The 35-year-old first baseman Joyner, playing
the position where the Padres moved Jake Cronenworth last offseason, contributed a .903 OPS.
For the 2023 Padres, the long season has become their No. 1 ally. The more talented teams should emerge over the six months.
Yes, the Padres are still one of those teams.
With Fernando Tatis Jr. confirming in actions and words that his surgically repaired left shoulder has been a boon to his career reboot, there’s no good reason that the quartet of Tatis, Soto, Machado and Xander Bogaerts can’t lead the current club back above .500 and onward.
Tatis, who is covering a lot of ground in right field, hit .375 and slugged .750 in the six games against the Dodgers. Following up on his pledge nine days ago to
make adjustments, fellow 24-year-old Soto began swinging at more first pitches and now has his OPS around .900 and near his career mark. Though Machado and Bogaerts may
be more vulnerable to decline as a pair of 30-yearolds, there’s too much track record here to expect them to wither this summer.
It’s said by some folks who know Machado that he needs a “carrot” to spur him to new heights. Only he knows if that’s true and how he was affected by the $170 million extension he got from Preller and Peter Seidler in spring training on top of the $180 million he was due. If he’s lost any competitive zest, it’s not evident in his performance at third base. He continues to resemble the best defender in Padres history other than Hall of Fame shortstop Ozzie Smith.
A bullpen that allowed the Dodgers four home runs in three narrow defeats will look to rebound. Better hitting is expected from Cronenworth, who slew the blue dragon in October but batted .158 against them with a .491 OPS in the six recent games. Dodgers pitchers smothered Trent Grisham (.067 batting average, .310 OPS) and the catching tandem of Austin Nola and Brett Sullivan, who were 2-for-19 with no walks.
Now the Padres will get a chance to pick on several teams with far less star talent and ability to understand them. Few opponents will be as capable as Mookie Betts, whose home run off closer Josh Hader’s insideblack fastball nixed a Padres victory and who hit tie-breaking home runs off mistakes by two other lefties, Tim Hill and Ryan Weathers.
If winning the L.A.-S.D. marathon has become a long shot, the Padres can earn a playoff berth and get another crack at the Dodgers there in a more favorable race, the playoff sprint.