Padres’ fix must come from well-paid core
“I don’t think that is the reason that everyone is struggling right now. But it adds a lot of stress on top of it.”
The question was posed to A.J. Preller.
“You’re not going to fire another manager soon, are you?”
The answer came firm and fast.
“No.”
Someone eventually will take the fall if the predicament created at the corner of Tony Gwynn Drive and Trevor Hoffman Way isn’t cleaned up.
That someone is often the manager, regardless of merit. But even setting aside how much Bob Melvin could have done to affect better play to this point and whether he and Preller see eye to eye on how to steer the ship, now is not the time to finalize such a decision.
Moreover, the reality is that if Preller, the Padres’ President of Baseball Operations, fires a third manager in less than four years and second in less than two and it doesn’t change anything in terms of results, there is only one guy left to blame.
The architect of this mess. A season that lasts more than six months is not yet two months old. There are numerous recent examples of teams that were under .500 in June and still playing deep into October.
But enough time has passed to know some things.
Today, the Padres begin a crucial nine-game road trip — far more crucial than any in May should be — with a spectacularly disappointing 21-26 record and having lost 11 of their past 14 games.
Meanwhile, it appears many of the other slow-starting teams — Mets, Cardinals, Astros, Yankees — are picking up their pace.
So for whatever might come, the reality 47 games into the most anticipated season in Padres
history is that the bulk of the players who got the big bucks that inflated the payroll to unimaginable heights are not doing their jobs any better than a collection that included Ian Kinsler, Franmil Reyes, Hunter Renfroe and the likes of Chris Paddack. In fact, the Padres were 23-24 this far into the 2019 season.
Let’s clear this up right now. The problem is not that these players got their money and are no longer interested in doing the work.
They possibly could have done some things differently to date. And, in fact, they have had multiple meetings involving various members of the team and staff over the last few weeks to discuss such issues.
But by all accounts — and by what is observable — the problem is not lack of caring or wanting to be great.
It might be something along the lines of the opposite.
“As one of the contract guys that’s here for a while, it’s tough,” Joe Musgrove said. “You take a lot of the blame on yourself and you want to do something to make a difference . ... I know a lot of people are saying, like, people are getting paid and now the fight and the desire and the need to win is not there anymore. And it couldn’t be further from that, man. You get a contract, there’s more pressure on you to perform to that contract and do your job and earn what you’re getting paid. I don’t think that is the reason that everyone is struggling right now. But it adds a lot of stress on top of it. It’s like a secondary thought to the fact that you’re struggling, like, ‘I’m also making all this money.’ It’s more a secondary thought than it is a cause and effect.”
Whatever the reasons — and in hindsight, perhaps a group that has had more than a 50 percent turnover since last August was going to need time to jell — this is a results-oriented business.
And for all the merited lamenting over Trent Grisham’s hitting line and the lack of bench depth, the solution can be fairly simple.
For this to have a chance at a happy ending, the pillars of what Preller fabricated by committing nearly $490 million of Peter Seidler’s money over the past 10 months have to start performing to the level of their paychecks. Or performing at all.
Manny Machado, Juan Soto and Xander Bogaerts are making a combined $76 million this season in salary and bonuses. They are all among the game’s 20 highest-paid position players. Soto’s .871 OPS ranks 26th in MLB, Bogaerts’ .760 ranks 82nd, and Machado’s .654 ranks 148th. Just 23 times in the 39 times they have played together have they totaled three hits or more between them. Just 28 times has at least one of the three gotten at least one extra-base hit, and just 10 times have they combined for multiple extra-base hits.
Yu Darvish and Musgrove are making $50 million between them in 2023. Darvish, who missed virtually all of spring training
while participating in the World Baseball Classic, has three quality starts among his eight total. He also allowed four or more runs in three starts after doing so five times in 30 starts last season. Musgrove, who also missed virtually all of the spring training and then the first three weeks of the season due to a fractured toe, has a 5.83 ERA through five starts.
Robert Suarez signed a contract in November that will pay him $30 million over the next three years and possibly as much as $46 million through 2027. He has yet to pitch this season due to an elbow injury. In that he has just resumed playing catch, the likelihood of seeing him before the All-Star break is low.
While Jake Cronenworth
technically doesn’t start receiving the regular checks from a sevenyear, $80 million contract until next year, the fact he was awarded the deal in late March signals his importance to the team. A .211/ .325/.373 line won’t do for a player who has been asked to hit fifth or second more often than not.
The Padres are getting what they paid for (or more than expected) from Michael Wacha, Nick Martinez, Josh Hader and Seth Lugo.
It’s considered a given inside the organization that the same thing must start being true for the big-money guys. Or an ugly start could turn into something no one wants to fathom.
The Padres won’t hold the widespread fervor of a town forever if they continue to flounder. The rate of 17 sellouts in the first 25 games a Petco Park will cool, along with the concessions sales and parking revenue. It might already be even money whether it’s more likely Soto is traded or signed to an extension before 2024. Should a bad start turn into a spiral, he won’t be the only one jettisoned.
There was always an escape plan.
Much like the status of the manager, that is not something the Padres want or are even considering at this point.
But the mess must unmess itself.