BIRD FLU OUTBREAK LESS SEVERE THAN ’22
Nearly 54M decline in slaughters helping egg, poultry prices recover
Nearly 5 million chickens, turkeys and other birds have been slaughtered this year because of a persistent bird flu outbreak that began in 2022, but as big as that number may sound, it’s far less than the number of birds killed last year which means consumers aren’t seeing as much impact on poultry and egg prices.
The 4.6 million birds killed this year compares to the nearly 58 million birds the U.S. Department of Agriculture said were slaughtered last year in the first year of the outbreak. While that decline is welcome news, the fact that infections continue is a worrisome indication that unlike earlier outbreaks, the current virus has found a way to survive through the summers, and poultry will likely always be at risk
of the disease.
The key problem with bird flu is that the highly contagious virus is spread easily by wild birds through droppings and nasal discharges, and it mutates over time. Despite the best efforts of farmers, it is hard to keep the virus out.
“The industry is definitely on really high alert,” said veterinarian Denise Heard with the U.S. Poultry & Egg Association trade group.
As geese and ducks have started to head south for the winter, cases of bird flu have predictably begun popping up primarily at farms in Minnesota, Iowa and South Dakota along one of the major flyways for migrating birds. Most of those cases involve only tens of thousands of birds, but 1.2 million birds at one Iowa egg farm and an additional 940,000 chickens at one Minnesota egg farm had to be slaughtered last week after the disease was found.
Still, only a small portion of the total flock nationwide has been affected this year, allowing prices to fall closer to where they were before the outbreak began.
Egg prices peaked at a nationwide average of $4.82 per dozen in January — more than double the $1.93 per dozen charged a year earlier before the first bird flu case was confirmed in Indiana in February of 2022. They remained at $2.07 per dozen last month, according to new numbers released Tuesday.
Turkey and chicken prices also
spiked over the past two years, but bird flu wasn’t the only factor as feed, fuel and labor costs also soared as part of the widespread inflation that weighed on the entire economy.
The average price per pound of a whole chicken has climbed pretty steadily since it was at $1.62 in January 2022, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics latest consumer price data. But it was only at $1.93 per pound in October, up from $1.86 a year ago. Chickens raised for meat have not been hit as hard by bird flu because that industry is focused in the southeast where there have not been as many cases, and because those chickens don’t live as long before they’re killed for meat so there is less chance of infection.
Retail turkey prices aren’t tracked the same way, but USDA reports show that wholesale frozen turkey prices averaged $1.15 per pound in October, down from last year’s $1.79 per pound and the previous year’s $1.35 per pound. And many of this year’s turkeys are already in cold storage, so even if more turkey farms get hit by the virus the current holiday supply won’t be affected.
Plus, as the National Turkey Federation trade group points out, many retailers like to discount turkey prices heavily in the hopes that consumers will buy the rest of their Thanksgiving fixings at their stores, so consumers might find even lower prices.
“We’re in a really good spot for
Thanksgiving turkeys,” said Jada Thompson, an agricultural economist at the University of Arkansas. “I think there should be a lot of relief coming in the holiday season.”
A combination of factors contributed to the sharp drop in bird flu cases this year. Perhaps the most important is that the number of virus cases the USDA has been finding among wild birds has dropped
precipitously, suggesting that some ducks and geese may be developing immunity. But farmers also redoubled efforts to keep the virus from infecting their flocks by tightening up biosecurity practices.
Farmers have gone to great lengths by requiring workers to shower and change clothes before entering barns, sanitizing trucks that enter a farm and investing in
separate sets of tools for every barn. Some farms have even upgraded barn ventilation and installed laser systems to discourage wild birds from congregating.
“The biggest thing, of course, that we would stress from here is biosecurity, biosecurity, biosecurity,” Heard said.