DEMOGRAPHICS BEHIND LATINOS COOLING TO DEMOCRATS
It’s often noted that the Latino vote is “not monolithic,” and Latino voters do in fact come from an array of countries, generations, regions, races, faiths and classes. But with a few exceptions, this loosely connected group has voted strongly Democratic, meeting all conventional definitions of a voting bloc.
Until recently.
The Latino population is changing, with parallel repercussions for two prominent American institutions: the Democratic Party and the media giant Univision. Both have built their successes over the last few decades on the notion that Latinos are primarily Spanish-speaking recent immigrants, an image increasingly disconnected with reality.
Univision, long the primary news and entertainment source for millions of U.S. Spanish speakers, now finds itself at much the same demographic crossroads as the Democrats. Slowing immigration rates and exploding numbers of U.S.-born, primarily Englishspeaking Latinos threaten the network’s hegemony as a news source for the population. Univision’s viewership is in steep decline.
The network has no option but to adjust, as evidenced by its controversial recent decision to air a lengthy and friendly interview with former President Donald Trump. Such moves put the media giant newly at odds with the Democratic Party, which has historically relied on Univision to carry its message and help drive turnout among Latinos.
The concurrent deterioration of President Joe Biden’s performance in polls among Latinos has similar roots. The Latino electorate is moving away from the aggrieved up a declining share of the Latino population in 2021, 32 percent, down from 37 percent in 2010. Latino births in the United States outpaced immigration from Latin America during that period. The U.S.-born Latino population grew by 10.7 million while the immigrant population grew by just 1.1 million, a ratio of 10 to 1.
Accordingly, while Trump saw political advantage in running up his share of the White vote as an anti-Latino candidate in 2016, his build-the-wall rhetoric had receded in our history.
Just as Fox News built a media juggernaut by catering to the views of an older, conservative, White audience that favors Trump and Republicans, Univision built its empire on the great waves of migration from Latin America at the end of the last century and the beginning of this one. Its base found comfort and community in the political advocacy of the network, which often eschewed traditional journalistic standards and openly advocated for Democrats strategy was never backed by much empirical evidence or very effective at motivating Latino voters, and it’s only getting less so.
Republicans, meanwhile, have noticed and capitalized on the demographic shift. Democrats have underperformed among Latinos or seen them move sharply in the Republicans’ direction in three of the last four national elections.
Democrats’ recent public attacks on Univision’s overtures to Trump reflected their painful awareness that any further erosion of Latino support would be disastrous for them next November. But the unfolding war between Democratic-leaning Latino advocacy groups and the network could hinder the Biden campaign’s ability to rebuild support among Latinos. Biden, who is polling lower among Latinos than any other modern Democratic presidential candidate has at this point, can ill afford to lose any more Latinos whether they watch Univision or not.
The Latino vote has changed and is continuing to do so. Democrats, for their sake and the country’s, are going to have to fight for a base they have always been able to take for granted.