Hope is not a strategy — you need a real, viable plan

A few years ago, I was one of the leaders in bringing the Defy Ventures program to Donovan state prison in San Diego. The rigorous program was designed to bring entrepreneurship into the lives of the inmates. There were deliverables over the six-month period, which ended in a business plan competition presented to a group of outside judges.

The key element in the business plan is that the inmate’s idea has to be able to become cash flow positive within

90-150 days. These ideas are not designed to be where you need to go raise

$300 million, rather these are entrepreneurial adventures that can be self-sustaining with a modest initial investment of less than $25,000.

I like this limitation. Control your own destiny. I am going to suggest to the entrepreneurial class of 2024 that hope is not a strategy and that the venture spigot of millions and billions has either turned off completely or is severely constrained at this time.

In other words, if you want to wade into new water, you need to start companies that can find traction and cash flow without depending on an unending supply of financial fantasy. Herewith some stats to back up my position courtesy of the reporting of Erin Griffith of The New York Times:

“WeWork raised more than $11 billion. Olive AI, a health care start-up, gathered in $852 million, Convoy, a freight start-up, raised $900 million and Veev, a home construction start-up, amassed $647 million. In the last six weeks, they all filed for bankruptcy or shut down,” Griffith writes.

Griffith goes on to detail the cash bonfire. “Hopin, another start-up, raised more than $1.6 billion, was once valued at $7.6 billion and just sold its main business for $15 million.” Add Plastiq and Bird to the landscape of the