President’s call for early election could backfire

ISPARTA, Turkey — President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s abrupt decision to call elections more than a year ahead of schedule, hoping to catch the opposition off guard, may backfire.

Turkish opposition parties have come together in a rare alliance that could pose a serious challenge to Erdogan in his attempt to be re-elected June 24 to a presidency with vastly expanded powers.

Erdogan, 64, remains easily the most popular politician in Turkey. But the election, as with a referendum last year that created a more powerful presidential system, is turning into a vote for or against his continued rule.

The front-runner among the opposition candidates is Muharrem Ince, a physics teacher and five-time member of parliament for the Republican People’s Party.

“I see a huge desire for change,” Ince said in an interview this past week on his campaign bus between rallies in southern Turkey. “Erdogan will be very sorry.”

Reliable pollsters and analysts expect the race to be very close. If no candidate wins more than 50 percent of votes, the election goes to a second round, something Erdogan hopes to avoid. For now, pollsters say the chances are 50-50 for a second round in which the top two vote-getters face each other.

If the opposition alliance holds and can force a second round, Ince could present a serious challenge to the president. The alliance candidates have pledged to unite behind whomever challenges Erdogan, Ince said.

Erdogan remains a skilled campaigner and a bruising opponent. He is running a campaign on nationalist themes, blaming terrorism and the West for Turkey’s economic woes — rising unemployment and inflation — and vaunting his social and building programs.

But Ince is offering an uplifting antidote to Erdogan, parrying the president’s slurs with jokes and cheerfulness.

“The clouds of desperation are hanging over the country,” he said. “I promise serenity, happiness and I promise peace.”

Opinion surveys show Erdogan at 45 percent support, with Ince at 20 percent. Yet when combined, the opposition alliance stands, along with the Kurdish vote, neck and neck with Erdogan.

Carlotta Gall is a New York Times writer.