San Francisco Chronicle - (Sunday)
California GOP remains silent on Trump turmoil
During a week that started with President Trump’s current lawyer Rudy Giuliani asserting that “the truth isn’t the truth” and continued with his former lawyer Michael Cohen implicating the president in a federal crime, California House Republicans shared a consistent reaction to the news from Washington: They said nothing.
Most of the delegation was similarly mute when one of their own, San Diego County Rep. Duncan Hunter — Trump’s second endorser in the House — and his wife were indicted in federal court for spending $250,000 in campaign funds on family vacations and other seemingly non-campaignrelated items, including a $600
plane ticket for the family’s pet rabbit.
One of few delegation members to offer much of a rebuttal on either topic was House Majority Leader Rep. Kevin McCarthy of Bakersfield, who described himself last week as having the “closest relationship of anybody in the House” to Trump.
His reaction reflected that relationship.
“I think it is time you shut (Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation) down so this country can move forward,” McCarthy told the Idaho Statesman on Wednesday as he was campaigning in Boise for GOP candidates.
That silence is intentional, because California Republicans have put themselves in a tough position when it comes to Trump and his early adopters like Hunter.
Without a high-profile governor’s candidate or any Republican in the U.S. Senate race, the GOP needs a way to lure Trump voters to the polls even without the president on the ballot. GOP consultants estimate that roughly 10 percent of the 4.4 million Californians who voted for Trump aren’t mainline Republican voters — those most likely to show up for a midterm election.
But Republicans also realize that just 34 percent of California voters approve of Trump, according to a nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California survey last month. So they don’t want to seem too pro-Trump or they’ll risk the estimated 5 percent of the nonaligned voters who haven’t picked a side in one of several hotly contested California House races.
Democrats are targeting seven GOP-held seats in California districts that Hillary Clinton won in 2016. Democratic leaders consider California to be pivotal in the party’s quest to flip 23 seats and recapture control of the House. The contests are expected to be so close that House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi predicted that 25,000 votes — collectively, nationwide — are expected to decide the top swing races.
So with the races so tight and the Republican base so staunchly pro Trump, that’s why when the Trump news is bad, you’ll be unlikely to hear a peep from California Republicans.
“I tell them not to talk about it, obviously,” said Dave Gilliard, a consultant to incumbent Reps. Jeff Denham, R-Turlock (Stanislaus County), and Mimi Walters, R-Irvine, and Young Kim and Diane Harkey, who are hoping to win House seats in open Orange and San Diego county districts.
“Both parties have a problem heading into November and it’s created by controversy around the president,” Gilliard said. “The Democrats have an angry mob driving their party, and that angry mob will settle for nothing less than impeaching the president.
“The Republican problem is how to keep our base motivated,” Gilliard said, relying on polling and focus group studies he’s done. “And the independents, those 5 percent in the middle who will decide the election, aren’t going to vote for or against candidate because of something about Trump.”
Most Republican voters want candidates to support Trump no matter what, according to a new poll.
When asked what strategy Republicans should follow this fall, 59 percent of the GOP respondents said they should “support President Trump’s positions on issues to motivate the party’s base,” according to a George Washington University Politics Poll released last week.
Only 12 percent thought candidates should be “willing to break with President Trump’s position to appeal to independent or swing voters.”
The GOP’s unblinking support of Trump “will be something that will occupy historians for a long time after he leaves office,” said Michael Cornfield, research director at George Washington University’s Center for Political Management. “They will wonder why Republicans, at best, acquiesced to him and, at worst, collaborated.”
But it’s hard for some candidates to avoid Trump, especially when he endorses them via Twitter.
Almost exactly five hours before Cohen told a federal court that “a candidate for federal office” directed him to make hush payments to two women in exchange for them remaining silent about sexual affairs they reportedly had with Trump, the president tweeted a glowing endorsement of Republican Diane Harkey. The California Board of Equalization member is running to replace Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Vista (San Diego County), who decided not to run again after winning re-election in 2016 by only 1,621 votes.
Trump lauded Harkey as “an extraordinary woman of great accomplishment & potential. She is running as a very popular Republican for the Congressional seat of my friend Darrell Issa —with his complete support. Diane is strong on crime, loves our Military & Vets — has my total Endorsement!” Harkey was one of few California Republicans to blast Hunter, tweeting that “I am deeply disappointed and disturbed by the news of the indictment of Congressman Hunter.”
But Harkey was hardly ashamed of Trump’s endorsement, despite the president’s legal problems. She quickly blasted it out to supporters as the centerpiece of an email fundraising solicitation.
“I’m honored to have President Trump’s support, but I need to know that I also have yours,” Harkey wrote in the pitch. “Will you join President Trump in supporting my campaign with a contribution of $10, $25, $50, $100, $250 or another amount today?”
Plus, her San Juan Capistrano campaign office “was packed after the president’s tweet went out,” said Fred Whitaker, chair of the Orange County Republican Party.
“The upside of that (tweet) is that it energized our base because the president’s base is very grassroots,” Whitaker said. “And when you only win a seat by 1,600 votes, every single vote matters. So it’s a net positive to us.” The GOP base loves Trump “because he has hit a core nerve with people,” Whitaker said. “They believe that he is fighting for them, that he’s not going along to get along the way they always do things in Washington.”
Harkey’s Democratic opponent, first-time candidate Mike Levin, liked Trump’s endorsement tweet, too. He liked it so much that he used it in his own fundraising pitch.
“Did you see this? Late last night, President Trump endorsed my opponent Diane Harkey on Twitter,” Levin wrote in an email solicitation. “Chip in now to help our campaign fight back and show we have what it takes to defeat Trump and Harkey!”