San Francisco Chronicle - (Sunday)
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The LaSalle formula chooses ‘Roma’ as best picture. Here’s how we know
Our Oscars 2019 coverage includes Mick LaSalle’s predictions. Pictured: Yalitza Aparidio in “Roma.”
The institutional personality of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has remained remarkably consistent over its more than 90-year history. This consistency makes it possible to predict the major category winners, not based on polls or buzz, but on historical tendencies. Let’s apply those tendencies right now, so you can all win your Oscar pools.
Best picture
This category is different from the others. Ever since the introduction of ranked voting, it has become difficult to guess who will win best picture. It used to be that big, stupid movies win, but that hasn’t been the case for years. The only pattern over the past decade is that front-runners fade about half the time. “Avatar,” “The Social Network,” “Lincoln,” “Boyhood” and “La La Land” were all favorites going into Oscar season, and all ended up losing.
But for “Roma,” this year’s favorite, to lose, it would have to lose to something, and so far nothing has emerged as an obvious alternative. I’d have liked to have seen “BlacKkKlansman” get some traction, or “Green Book,” or “The Favourite” — I’d have even preferred “A Star Is Born” to win, because at least it’s entertaining and lovable. But none seems to be rising to the surface.
The continuing strength of “Roma” might be the result of how Academy members are watching it — either on DVD or streaming on Netflix. Fastforward is available in both viewing methods, and “Roma” is a movie that seems ideal for fast-forward viewing. If Academy voters are zipping through the boring passages and lingering over the better sections, they may indeed convince themselves that “Roma” is a great movie.
And so ... “Roma” will win best picture.
Best actor
The best actor winner is almost always middle-aged, which we define as between the ages of 38 and 60. He is usually someone who has already been nominated once in this category — so first-timers are at a disadvantage. And most importantly, the winner is almost always someone who underwent a chameleonic transformation in the film for which he is nominated. Thus, if you’re George Clooney in “Michael Clayton,” and you look and act just like George Clooney, you’re going to lose.
You don’t deserve to lose, but you will lose. Guaranteed.
However, if you transform — and even better, play a celebrity or historical figure and look and act just like them — you’re made. That’s how, for example, Philip Seymour Hoffman (“Capote”) beat Heath Ledger (“Brokeback Mountain”) in 2006.
Now let’s look at the nominees. Bradley Cooper for “A Star Is Born.” Cooper is 44 — perfect. He has been nominated twice before in this category — double perfect. But wait ... the guy he plays ... he’s not all that different from Bradley Cooper. Sure, he sings, and he’s an alcoholic. But Cooper looks just like himself in the movie, so he’s out of luck.
Willem Dafoe for “Eternity’s Gate.” He is 63, so he’s aging out of the category.
He has been nominated seeral times for best supporting actor, but never for best actor. He does play a historical figure in “Eternity’s Gate,” namely Vincent Van Gogh. But even if Dafoe acted just like him, how would we know? Also, it’s a little weird that Dafoe is playing a guy who died at 37, a quarter century younger than Dafoe’s age. So, he’s a long shot.
Rami Malek (“Bohemian Rhapsody”) has never been nominated for best actor, and he’s a little young, at 36. However, he does play a famous person, Freddie Mercury, and he wears those fake teeth well. Then again, if you were wearing those teeth you might look like Freddie Mercury, too. Malek could very well win. Supposedly, he’s the favorite.
Viggo Mortensen (“Green Book”) just turned 60, which means he just sneaks in as middle-aged. He has been nominated twice before in this category. And he plays a guy nothing like himself. He dyed his hair. He gained weight — oh, the Academy loves when actors gain weight. He completely transformed, and he’s wonderful in the movie. I’d like to see him win. Yet his performance is not quite the complete Halloween costume that Oscar loves best.
Then there’s Christian Bale (“Vice”). He’s 45 years old — that’s right in the zone. He’s been nominated once before in this category. He played a historical figure, not a beloved one, but a historical figure all the same (former Vice President Dick Cheney). He gained weight — lots of it. In the movie, he looks, acts and sounds like another person, and since we’ve all seen and remember that other person, we can gauge the extent and precision of his transformation.
So, this is where we stand: It’s between Malek and Bale, but the traditional indices point stronger for Bale. And so ... Christian Bale will win best actor.
Best actress
Traditionally, the winner of best actress is a first-time nominee, under the age of 35, who wins for playing someone completely unlike herself, preferably a real-life person out of history.
But no nominee fits that description
this year.
Of the two under-35 actresses, Yalitza Aparicio (“Roma”), who is 25, is a complete unknown, and Lady Gaga, 32, plays an Italian-American pop star in “A Star Is Born” — not exactly a stretch. Neither will win. Truly, neither has a chance.
Comic actress Melissa McCarthy has a dramatic role in “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” but hers is not exactly a chameleonic transformation. Glenn Close in “The Wife” acts a lot like Glenn Close, and Olivia Colman (“The Favourite”) plays Queen Anne. That’s a historical figure, which helps, except that nobody knows what the real Queen Anne sounded like. In any case, when a relatively unknown (on our shores) British actress plays a queen, most Americans don’t see that as a transformation. They just see it as an English person being English.
As Close is the oldest (71) nominee and the only one previously nominated in the category, she might seem at a double disadvantage. But last year, Frances McDormand (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”) won for playing an older woman who gets tired of being pushed around, and now Close is playing a very different older woman who also gets tired of being pushed around.
Last year, I predicted that McDormand would win because of a feeling in the country — and presumably throughout the Academy, as well — that women were angry, particularly older women who’d seen the promise of second-wave feminism come into bloom during their own lifetimes. This year, that same demographic has no reason to be any more sanguine about the state of the nation.
Plus, this time there’s no candidate that checks off the traditional boxes (young, first-time nominee, in a chameleonic performance). Last year, McDormand had to beat Margot Robbie (“I, Tonya”). Who’s there to stand in Close’s way?
And so, now we know ... Glenn Close will win best actress.
Supporting actor
Sam Rockwell is a great actor — he was underrated for years — but his imitation of George W. Bush in “Vice,” delightful though it was, doesn’t deserve an Oscar nomination. The nomination of Sam Elliott’s overblown performance in “A Star Is Born” is more on the order of a career achievement acknowledgment, but the Academy stopped giving out sentimental prizes years ago. Ask Lauren Bacall.
That leaves Adam Driver (“BlacKkKlansman”), Richard E. Grant (“Can You Ever Forgive Me?”) and Mahershala Ali (“Green Book”). The latter two were great, and merit goes a long way in the supporting categories. Of the two, Ali seems to have the most momentum.
Mahershala Ali will win best supporting actor.
Supporting actress
Amy Adams gets nominated for just showing up, but her performance as Lynne Cheney in “Vice” is not one of her best. Rachel Weisz deserves to win for “The Favourite,” but she splits her votes with co-star Emma Stone — and in any case, they’ve both won Oscars, and the Academy may want to spread the love around. And the nomination of Marina de Tavira seems to be a product of Academy voters’ general affection for “Roma.”
That leaves Regina King, who has a relatively small role in “If Beale Street Could Talk,” but she is brilliant in two scenes, which also happen to be the best scenes in the movie.
Regina King will win best supporting actress.
Best foreign language film
The voting for best foreign language film is different from the other categories. To qualify to vote, you must attend Academy screenings of all five nominated films. That means that voters, if they want to vote for “Roma,” must ... Sit. Through. The whole. Thing. They can’t vote for “Roma” because their friends are voting for it, or because part of it looked amazing. They have to see every long, long minute of it and then decide it was better than Pawel Pawlikowski’s “Cold War.”
Something else to consider: Pawlikowski was nominated for best director. That means “Cold War” has friends in the Academy, and you don’t need that many friends to win in the foreign category. Plus — just a guess — “Cold War” fans may tend to be more hard-core foreign-film lovers than “Roma” fans. They’ll go to those screenings and watch all five films.
Maybe none of this will matter, but let’s give these voters the benefit of the doubt: “Cold War” will win best foreign language film.
Best director
Alfonso Cuarón will win best director for “Roma.” There’s nothing we can do about it.