San Francisco Chronicle - (Sunday)
Where Bumgarner could land
The front office is prepared for it. Fans are prepared for it. Even Madison Bumgarner himself seems prepared for it.
What long ago seemed ludicrous now seems inevitable. Trading Bumgarner makes too much sense for a Giants team lacking high-level prospects, power hitters and a stable of tradeable players.
The trade deadline is July 31, but for contending teams, the more Bumgarner the better. So a trade well beforehand is possible if a team meets the price of Farhan Zaidi, president of baseball operations.
Bumgarner, who has pitched well in recent weeks (3.19 ERA in his past five starts), will be a free agent after the season, so he’d be a rental for a team with designs on a successful postseason or simply reaching the postseason.
The left-hander’s October pedigree is historic, and there’s no reason to believe he wouldn’t continue to dominate in the playoffs.
Here’s a look at how he would fit or wouldn’t fit with the other 29 teams:
Yankees: Domingo German was the latest starter to be hurt. Luis Severino has been a noshow because of shoulder problems, and CC Sabathia and James Paxton have been slowed by knee ailments. The Yankees
need help. They fell short in the Dallas Keuchel sweepstakes, and Bumgarner would be a nice fit on a team that has won 27 World Series but none since 2009. Imagine Bumgarner in pinstripes. Pretty imposing. Except they wouldn’t let him hit.
Braves: These are Bumgarner’s roots, and this is a team going places. Bumgarner grew up a Braves fan. They already signed Keuchel, and Bumgarner would make a deep playoff run possible. A holdup is the Braves are among the eight teams on his notrade list along with the Yankees, Red Sox, Astros, Cubs, Cardinals, Brewers and Phillies. Which might not be a major hangup. The Bumgarner camp picked likely contenders that would expect to woo him so that he’d be compensated for approving a deal and would have more say in where he goes. By the way, a trade would boost Bumgarner’s free-agent value by preventing him from getting a qualifying offer, which hampered the free agencies of Craig Kimbrel and Keuchel.
Astros: A playoff rotation of Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Bumgarner? No team better understands the importance of adding an ace down the stretch. Verlander arrived two years ago and led the Astros to their first World Series title. This makes sense.
Phillies: A few writers covering the Giants were in the clubhouse discussing where they’ll be on July 31 when Bumgarner blurted out “Philadelphia.” Indeed, the Giants play the Phillies that day. The scribes chuckled, but it clearly showed he’s monitoring this stuff. Whether he’ll be in a Phillies uniform at that point is another question. But not only are they all-in on winning (see their offseason acquisitions), their rotation is a weak link with Aaron Nola and Jake Arrieta not pitching to par.
Brewers: They could use Bumgarner to stay ahead of the Cubs and Cardinals, but they are so bullpen-fixated that their primary push could be for relievers. Then again, they remember what Sabathia did for the Brewers as a 2008 rental.
Twins: They were in on Keuchel to solidify a young rotation, so there’s no reason they shouldn’t be in on Bumgarner. The AL Central is a weak division, and division favorite Cleveland has turned mediocre. It’s the Twins’ time.
Cardinals: They’ve wanted to see which Bumgarner is available: the vintage one or the one who fought to return to form the previous two years. Here’s the answer: His 4.5-1 strikeout-towalk ratio would be the fifth best of his career, and his velocity (92.2 mph) is the highest since 2015. Expect some interest.
Rays: Fun fact: The lowest rotation ERA in the majors belongs to the … Rays. That includes their openers — Ryne Stanek leads the majors with 19 starts but has thrown just 372⁄3 innings. Their traditional starters have been solid, and Tyler Glasnow is due back after the All-Star break, so they’re probably more willing to beef up their bullpen. We know Bumgarner’s distaste for openers, but that’s irrelevant because even the Rays let their accomplished starters start.
Padres: If they’re in contention for a wildcard spot at the deadline, why not? They have young starters on pitch limits — they sent Chris Paddack to the minors after he faced the Giants on Tuesday but only to curtail his workload — and could use a veteran arm. They’re deep in prospects, but they’re still more about the future than the present. Or are they?
Red Sox: A long shot considering the Red Sox already committed $85 million to the rotation (David Price, Rick Porcello, Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Sale) and are a few million from the third (and highest) competitive balance tax threshold of $246 million. Now, if Eovaldi (elbow) is shelved for the season …
Cubs: With a solid rotation, they’d have more interest in Giants relievers Will Smith and Tony Watson. Rangers: A reunion with Hunter Pence would be epic, and the Rangers, stunningly, are in a playoff spot as we speak. But they’re more interested in obtaining players whose contracts they would control beyond this year.
Rockies: Imagine Bumgarner pitching a mile high. That’s no way to maintain one’s ERA and or boost one’s market value. The Rockies’ rotation isn’t what it was last year and needs help. Perhaps Toronto’s Marcus Stroman is a preferable target because he’s under team control through next season.
A’s: They already have plenty of reinforcements coming from pitchers on rehab, starting with Jesus Luzardo and A.J. Puk. By season’s end, the rotation could be a team strength. Meantime, we’re still waiting for Zaidi to break the ice on Giants-A’s trade talk.
Angels: For a team that’s buried behind Houston, the best-case scenario is a wild-card berth. The Angels, with the American League’s highest rotation ERA, aren’t in the market for rentals as they revive their farm system. Their philosophy might change if they find themselves in better shape at the deadline.
Dodgers: Ouch. Zaidi knows this farm system as well as anybody, but Bumgarner in Dodger blue? We’ve seen Jeff Kent, Brian Wilson and Sergio Romo defect, even the great Juan Marichal back in the day. But this would seem cruel and unusual, and Bumgarner’s episodes with Yasiel Puig and more recently Max Muncy make him no Dodger Stadium fan favorite. Don’t worry. This won’t happen. It wouldn’t be allowed. The Dodgers aren’t on Bumgarner’s no-trade list. He knew it wasn’t necessary.
Mets: They could turn into sellers, not buyers. Remember Zack Wheeler, Giants prospect? Now he’s Zack Wheeler, pending free agent.
Indians: Buried behind the Twins and not intending to boost payroll, the Indians aren’t a fit for Bumgarner. If they wave the white flag at the deadline, they could move starter Trevor Bauer and reliever Brad Hand.
Nationals: There’s a better chance they shop Max Scherzer than pursue Bumgarner. What a mess. What they really lack is Dusty Baker. Diamondbacks: They don’t want Bumgarner if they’re trying to trade Zack Greinke.
Royals: What did a frantic Randolph Duke say to the commodities trader as he was losing his fortune? “Get back in there at once and sell, sell!”
Pirates: The Giants need outfielders. The Pirates have some to trade. Bumgarner has nothing to do with this conversation. Carry on.
Mariners: They’re dumping, not adding. GM Jerry Dipoto calls it a “step back” season. Others in the industry call it tanking.
White Sox: They’re making strides since losing 100 games last year but not enough to care about a rental player.
Blue Jays: The big news in Toronto isn’t whether Stroman is traded. It’s whether Kawhi Leonard re-signs.
Tigers: Rebuilding teams have no need for postseason heroes.
Reds: That’s all the world needs — Bumgarner and Puig, teammates.
Orioles: Hey, with Bumgarner, maybe the O’s don’t lose 100. They lose 99.
Marlins: Yeah, right. In Derek Jeter’s dreams.