San Francisco Chronicle - (Sunday)
For some state Democrats, impeachment struggle risky
For California’s congressional Democrats, it’s easy to stand strong for impeaching President Trump when there’s no chance they will have to pay a political price.
“This is not about party politics — it is about what is right for American people and our democracy,” Rep. Tony Cárdenas, D-Pacoima (Los Angeles County), said in a statement Thursday. “It is time to begin an impeachment inquiry into this president and get to the truth.”
Cárdenas, who was first elected to Congress in 2012, was re-elected in November with 81% of the vote.
Last year, Fresno Democrat TJ Cox barely edged out GOP Rep. David Valadao, 50.4% to 49.6%, in a race that wasn’t decided until after Thanksgiving. His statement on impeachment is much less emphatic.
“The troubling conclusions of the Mueller report (on Russian interference in the 2016
election) are the beginning of a discussion on how to protect our democracy, not the end,” Cox said in a statement. “And it’s why it is important for Congress to continue the work of investigating, asking the tough questions and holding the administration accountable.”
Investigate? Sure. Impeachment proceedings? Not so fast.
“In a time when politics has become so polarized, impeachment becomes just another party issue,” said Nathan Monroe, a political science professor at UC Merced. “Politicians expect voters to react to it as a partisan issue.”
That partisan split might not mean much to someone like Democratic Rep. Jared Huffman of San Rafael, whose 77% backing in November left him free to co-sponsor articles of impeachment against Trump.
For Democrats in purple districts, where they can expect a strong Republican challenge to their re-election campaigns next year, it’s a different story.
California Democrats flipped seven GOP-held seats last year and will be all-out to hold them in 2020. A campaign battle over impeachment won’t help their chances, said Tony Quinn, a former Republican consultant who is now senior editor of the nonpartisan California Target Book, which focuses on the state’s political contests.
“Those Democrats ran against Trump on taxes and health care, but they didn’t run on Maxine Waters’ issues,” pointing to the liberal Los Angeles congresswoman who is backing Trump’s impeachment.
But while running as an impeachment backer might be difficult in a GOP-friendly district, Orange County Rep. Katie Porter will try to show it’s not impossible.
Porter, a UC Irvine law professor, beat GOP Rep. Mimi Walters with 52% of the vote in November. While Republicans still hold a 36% registration edge over 30% for Democrats in the district, Porter came out Monday for an impeachment investigation, saying, “I cannot with a clean conscience ignore my duty to defend the Constitution.”
Almost immediately, she got a look at the type of partisan bombardment she will face in the lead-up to the 2020 elections.
Porter ran as a moderate but continues “her lockstep march with ... the most far left of her party,” said Fred Whitaker, chairman of the Republican Party of Orange County.
With polls showing that most Orange County residents oppose beginning impeachment efforts, “it’s obvious Katie values the opinion of the socialist Democrats in Washington more than the opinion of her Orange County constituents,” Torunn Sinclair of the Republican National Congressional Committee said in a blog post.
The committee followed up Thursday with Facebook ads asking district residents to sign a petition asking her not to impeach Trump.
Most of the other California House Democrats who have already called for an impeachment inquiry aren’t likely to face that sort of resistance from Republicans, because there aren’t many Republicans in their districts in the first place.
Of the 13 California Democrats besides Porter who have called for an impeachment inquiry, Rep. Alan Lowenthal of Long Beach had the tightest contest in November, and it wasn’t all that close — he won 65% of the vote.
But all the races that ended in Democrats winning Republican-held seats were far closer. Of the seven winning Democrats, Rep. Mike Levin of San Juan Capistrano (Orange County) had the strongest number, with 56% of the vote. Four others were at 52% or less.
It’s not just the newest Democratic members of Congress who might be concerned about what an impeachment effort could mean to their re-election chances. While Democratic Reps. Ami Bera of Elk Grove (Sacramento County) and Jim Costa of Fresno were comfortably re-elected last year, both had political near-death experiences in 2014, each winning with less than 51%.
That’s probably one reason House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of San Francisco has fought against the growing calls from anti-Trump activists for an immediate move to impeachment. After flipping 40 GOP seats in 2018 to take control of the House, she doesn’t want to lose some of those seats because of a partisan battle over impeachment, especially when Republican control of the Senate virtually guarantees that Trump won’t be removed from office.
Pelosi understands what’s at stake in the impeachment question, even if others in her caucus don’t, said Quinn, the former GOP consultant.
“Those marginal seats are in danger,” he said. “The Democrats are very lucky to have someone as astute as Pelosi in charge.”
East Bay Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell, who is running for president, said this month that he realizes an impeachment fight could cost Democrats seats in the House.
“I respect that it’s a very personal decision, based on your conscience and your constituents,” he said.
Swalwell has come out in favor of an impeachment inquiry, saying Trump “continues to put his own interests above America’s.”
In 2018, Swalwell was reelected with 73% of the vote.
Pelosi provides anti-impeachment Democrats with some cover, since they can say they’re just following the speaker’s slow but steady plan on impeachment.
There’s also the question of just how important the impeachment debate is to the voters expected to flock to the polls in record numbers next year.
A poll released this month by UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies found that only 35% of California’s registered voters want to start impeachment proceedings. Even in Democratic strongholds like the Bay Area and Los Angeles County, that number rises no higher than 41%.
By contrast, 30% of those surveyed are either opposed to impeachment or want investigations to play out, while 34% say Congress should consider the case closed and move on. In the Central Valley and Orange County, home to most of the endangered seats, more than two-thirds of the voters don’t favor impeachment.
That allows Democrats like Rep. Josh Harder of Turlock (Stanislaus County) to shove the impeachment question aside, saying he’s concentrating on issues more important to his district.
“The Mueller report made it clear there are serious ethical violations and still many unanswered questions,” Harder said in an email. “That being said, my first priority is staying focused on getting things done for the valley on the issues impacting people’s everyday lives.”
At town hall meetings in the district, Harder is getting questions on health care, water issues and jobs, according to his office.
“He’s gotten more mail on animal rights than impeachment,” said one staffer, who asked not to be named because person wasn’t authorized to speak publicly. “And it’s not close.”