San Francisco Chronicle - (Sunday)
Democrats pin hopes on Orange County seat
For Democrat Josh Newman, reclaiming the Orange County state Senate seat he lost in a 2018 recall is a matter of simple justice. But for California Democratic leaders, it’s a chance to show that the party’s inroads into the state’s GOP heart last year were anything but a onetime fluke.
“Absolutely it’s a race,” said Jim Nygren, the consultant for GOP state Sen. Ling Ling Chang, who lost to Newman by fewer than 2,500 votes in 2016, then won the seat when he was recalled. “It will probably be the most interesting race in the state” in 2020.
Orange County, for decades a bastion for conservative Republicans, was inundated by the Democrats’ blue wave in November. Not only did Democrats flip four GOPheld congressional seats, but they also sent a pair of Republican legislators packing.
Democrats will be all out to defend those seats next year, while Republicans will be looking to grab them back. But a Newman
takeaway victory, coming just two years after he was trounced in the recall vote, would be strong evidence that Democrats could not only have staying power in Orange County — they could come to own it.
“Democrats think they have a good chance” to take back Newman’s old district, said Sarah Hill, a political science professor at Cal State Fullerton. “The district is still pretty close ... but Democrats see it moving in a more liberal direction. It’s pretty clear that it’s changing.”
While the 29th State Senate District is spread over three counties, 73% of the voters are in northeast Orange County, which includes Newman’s hometown of Fullerton, plus Yorba Linda, La Habra and much of Anaheim. Democrats hold a 35%31% registration edge, double their twopoint margin in 2016.
“There are more younger voters in the district and many more Latinos,” Hill said. “A moderate Republican can still do well, but they have to be more liberal on social issues to hold on to younger voters.”
The 2020 election is his chance for vindication, Newman, 54, said in an interview.
“I won a fair and square general election,” he said. “But I wasn’t recalled for any other reason than partisan politics.” Newman was an aide to San Francisco Mayor Frank Jordan in the 1990s, and the 2016 race for the seat of a termedout Republican was his first try for elective office. The former Army officer squeaked by another Democrat to finish second in the primary and then beat Chang in the general election.
The trigger for Newman’s downfall was his 2017 vote for thenGov. Jerry Brown’s SB1, which raised California’s gas tax to pay for road repairs and transportation improvements. Less than two weeks after Brown signed the bill into law, a recall petition was filed against Newman.
The petition charged that Newman had betrayed his district by voting for the tax hike. But he wasn’t a random target: Carl DeMaio, the conservative San Diego radio talk show host who sponsored the recall effort, said Newman was singled out because he had barely won in 2016.
It worked. In June 2018, Newman was recalled by 58%42%.
Conservatives were unhappy about the gas tax, but the activists who led the recall were also interested in altering the balance of power in the Legislature, said Hill of Cal State Fullerton.
With Newman out and Chang in, the Democrats in Sacramento lost the twothirds supermajority that let them pass legislation without the need for any GOP votes.
“It was a sneaky way of getting him out of office ... that started out of the district,” Hill said.
It was a bitter defeat, Newman admitted.
“The recall was supposed to be used to remove people for malfeasance,” he said. “I never thought it would be used to change the results on an election you didn’t like.”
Plenty has changed since that recall election, and most of it favors the Democrats. Their registration numbers have improved in the district, Democratic strength is surging in Orange County, and the party reclaimed its supermajorities in both the state Senate and the Assembly in the November elections.
And there will be a big difference between a lowturnout special recall election in 2018 and the massive number of voters expected to show up for the 2020 election with President Trump on the top of the ballot.
The turnout for the recall election was 36%, about half what it was in the 2016 vote that sent Newman to Sacramento.
“The total votes in the recall were less than what I received myself in 2016,” Newman said. “With Donald Trump on the ballot, hopefully I’ll be making my case to a larger, betterinformed electorate.”
There’s still a world of time until the 2020 election, but while the filing deadline isn’t until November, the odds favor a NewmanChang rematch.
The 42yearold Chang was born in Taiwan and served as a Diamond Bar (Los Angeles County) councilwoman and oneterm assemblywoman. Her reelection campaign so far is a lowkey effort, said Nygren, her consultant.
“Right now she’s focusing on being a good state senator and raising money for her campaign,” Nygren said. Chang also “is making the rounds,” talking to GOP groups and supporters.
The campaign won’t be an easy one, said Nygren, who was also the consultant for Republican Bob Huff, who held the state Senate seat before Newman.
“This was once a safe Republican seat, but not any longer,” he said.
Since being forced from office, Newman has done nonprofit workshops for veterans, helping them link with businesses looking for workers. There’s been plenty of temptation to make a permanent break from politics.
“I’d be fibbing if I said I didn’t consider it,” he said. “It was disillusioning to be doing the right things for the right reasons and then see this happen.”
State Democratic leaders are convinced that with Trump on the ballot, voters unhappy with the president will show up in record numbers in 2020, propelling candidates like Newman to victory. Hill said they have good reason for optimism, in Orange County and beyond.
“We’re seeing important political shifts that will show up throughout the country in time,” she said.
John Wildermuth is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. Email: jwildermuth @sfchronicle.com Twitter: @jfwildermuth