San Francisco Chronicle - (Sunday)
Exit poll shows dead heat among 3 major parties
DUBLIN — Ireland’s three biggest political parties are likely to face a difficult process of forming a new government, with an exit poll suggesting they finished in a virtual tie in parliamentary elections Saturday.
The survey conducted for national broadcaster RTE, the Irish Times, TG4 television and University College Dublin by pollster Ipsos MRBI said the Fine Gael party of Prime Minister Leo Varadkar, Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein all received about 22% of first preference votes.
The exit poll was based on 5,376 interviews conducted immediately after people voted at 250 polling stations. It has a margin of error of plus or minus one percentage point.
Vote counting starts Sunday, and it could be Monday before the election’s results are determined.
With none of the three main parties likely to gain enough seats to govern alone, a coalition of some kind is almost inevitable.
But Sinn Fein was in a slightly weaker position than its two main rivals, because it fielded only 42 candidates for the 159 seats available and might be unable to find enough likeminded leftleaning allies to form a workable government.
Fine Gael and Fianna Fail — the two parties that have dominated Irish politics since independence — have shunned Sinn Fein because of its links to the Irish Republican Army.
While Sinn Fein is a major force in Northern Ireland, the United Kingdom region where it is part of the powersharing government that helped end decades of sectarian violence, it has long been a minor player south of the border in the Irish Republic. But the party has attracted voters with leftwing proposals for tackling Ireland’s housing crisis and bolstering the nation’s creaking healthcare system.
Support for the traditionally dominant parties has fallen since the 2008 financial crisis, which hit Ireland’s debtfueled “Celtic Tiger” economy particularly hard.
Varadkar, the country’s first openly gay leader, became Taoiseach — prime minister — in 2017 after the resignation of his predecessor. His party has governed Ireland since 2011, first in coalition with the smaller Labor Party and since 2016 as the leader of a minority administration with the tacit support of Fianna Fail.
The election campaign was dominated by domestic problems, especially a growing homelessness crisis, housing prices that have risen faster than incomes and a public health system that hasn’t kept up with demand.
Danica Kirka and Nicolae Dumitrache are Associated Press writers.