San Francisco Chronicle - (Sunday)
Outbreak forcing us to revamp routines
New behaviors may last beyond immediate crisis
It isn’t easy to change habits, as those who have tried to go a day without touching their face have found, but the coronavirus outbreak is threatening to modify human behavior, culture, business and — yes — habits in ways that could permanently alter our way of life.
The COVID-19 pandemic has already disrupted American society, causing the stock market to plummet, and workplaces, theaters and sports leagues to close down as people across the country stockpile food and hole up at home.
Locally, ridership on BART and other mass transit has declined, and movie theaters, bars and restaurants are virtually empty. Handshakes, hugs, high-fives and kisses on the cheek have become almost taboo. Even the untidy among us have become germophobes, incessantly washing our hands and wiping down surfaces.
The impacts of the growing pandemic are far reaching, but the biggest changes are in the business realm, where experts say increased teleconferencing, automation and e-commerce could become standard even after the virus threat is gone.
“Companies will put in infrastructure to enable re
mote working, to make sure people can operate seamlessly and communicate well regardless of where they are on the planet,” said Darren Murph, head of remote for GitLab, a software company whose 1,150-plus employees all work remotely.
He thinks the coronavirus will make telecommuting the norm for people who now only occasionally work from home when they are waiting for a repair person or attending a child’s school event.
“This is like a get-out-of-jailfree card that every major city in the world never saw coming but will be so grateful for,” Murph said. “We’re already way oversubscribed with people — on public transit and in cars on the road. This will reduce strain on the infrastructure without spending any money.”
The changes will be necessary, given that it could take 12 months or longer before a vaccine is developed. And restrictions could get more draconian as the number of infections grow, including mandatory home quarantines.
It is unlikely that many cities and regions could be isolated, like has happened in China and New Rochelle, N.Y. But the fast-spreading disease has forced Italy into a lockdown and the United States is, by all accounts, still in the beginning stages of infection.
Experts say the disease is likely to have long-term implications on how much people fly or take mass transit and even whether they greet people with a handshake or the newly fashionable elbow bump.
But major changes in our personal habits are unlikely, said Russell Poldrack, a neuroscientist at Stanford University and an expert on habit-forming behavior. Once the threat is over, he said, people will probably go back to touching their faces, shaking hands, hugging, kissing and failing to wash their hands frequently.
“Whether (new behaviors) become permanent depends on how long this lasts and how bad it gets,” Poldrack said. “Take handshakes. They are so deeply ingrained in our fabric, but it could well be that the virus drives people to worry enough about disease transmission that they change to some other greeting.”
New technologies, if not new habits, are more likely to catch on and become permanent as the virus spreads, said Ken Goldberg, a professor of engineering and robotics at UC Berkeley.
“I think it will accelerate that tendency to order things online, especially things like food and groceries,” Goldberg said. That, in turn, “will increase a demand for robots to fulfill these orders.”
An example of a technology that could boom during the crisis, he said, are robots that collect items in warehouses and package them for online shoppers, an industry that is now booming in China as a result of the new coronavirus.
Fear of infection among health care workers could also drive innovations in telemedicine, including remote-control robots that can help doctors examine patients without having to be there in person, he said. An Israeli startup, TytoCare, has developed such a system, allowing doctors to guide patients from afar as they perform medical tests on themselves using a handheld exam kit.
Similarly, the reluctance of people to go to large meetings and conferences will likely increase demand for tele-robots, with video screens and microphones, that could attend a conference in a person’s place, allowing virtual delegates to network while lounging at home in their pajamas. Such robots are available now, but they are rare.
“I think it’s a game changer in that (telecommuting) may be our new normal,” said Bernard Coleman, head of employee engagement at Gusto, a payroll, benefits and human resources platform for small businesses.
One offshoot could be rethinking work hours.
“Do the hours of 9 to 5 even make sense anymore?” Coleman said. “What if people are more productive from 11 a.m. to 7 p.m.?”
A reduction of in-person conferences could force many professional societies to develop new business models, since the income from annual meetings helps fund their advocacy, training, research and other activities. But replacing large annual meetings with virtual conferences isn’t all bad, said Dr. Dan Diekema, director of the infectious disease division at the University of Iowa.
“There has been pressure building on this from an environmental standpoint” because of the emissions produced by travel, Diekema said in an email. “Now perhaps a tipping point will be reached.”
Another example of a potentially permanent change is happening at UC Berkeley, Stanford and many other major universities around the country, where classes are being taught exclusively online as a result of the COVID-19 scare.
“The technology obviously is never going to be as good as being there, but as people get used to going to classes, religious services and other places remotely, it could catch on,” Goldberg said. “Maybe we will adapt and in 20 years, it will be normal for people to have remote meetings.”
A range of domino effects could occur if working from home becomes more commonplace. Some would benefit society: less traffic and thus fewer emissions. But the flip side would be fewer people on public transit, hurting agencies that depend on fare revenues. There would also be fewer patrons at restaurants that depend on workers for lunchtime business, and fewer customers in stores.
Businesses also might need less office space if there is a permanent increase in telecommuting, causing building vacancies and reducing rents. That could actually help San Francisco, which has a serious office space shortage, said Jay Cheng, public policy director of the San Francisco Chamber of Commerce.
Paid sick leave could be a long-lasting legacy of the coronavirus pandemic. Currently, the U.S. has no mandate for employers to offer paid sick leave, or paid family medical leave, which typically is longer. As a result, one quarter of workers — about 30 million people — who lack the benefit must decide whether to forgo a paycheck or risk going to work and transmitting or contracting disease.
The crisis has ignited debate on Capitol Hill and elsewhere, with proponents highlighting studies that mandatory paid leave decreases flu rates. Historically, Democrats have pushed for paid sick leave, while Republicans have opposed it as hurting businesses.
“Now, folks on both sides of the aisle are talking about the need to do something,” said Ruth Martin, chief workplace justice officer for MomsRising, a nationwide advocacy group pushing the Healthy Families Act, which would require businesses with at least 15 employees to provide seven days a year of paid sick leave.
In fact, the emergency relief plan that Congress passed early Saturday with broad bipartisan support includes two weeks of paid sick leave and up to three months of paid family and medical leave, as well as expanded unemployment insurance. While they are temporary and only for people affected by the coronavirus, those benefits lay the groundwork for similar future legislative action.
David Levine, a professor at the Haas School of Business at UC Berkeley, said change usually happens slowly, and even in this situation probably needs a push.
“This (disease) is forcing many places and schools to try something new, and once the fixed cost of learning new software, new routines and changing the norm is over, some of them are going to say, ‘Hey, this is a better way,’ ” Levine said. “But the way to make necessary changes systematic is not to rely on individuals. To the extent that organizations institute safe routines there can be lasting change. When you walk into a doctor’s office, they should ask you to wash your hands.”