San Francisco Chronicle - (Sunday)
6 key reasons that Biden is likely to defeat Trump
The polls are beginning to show a consistent trend that has Joe Biden waxing President Trump’s wig.
In the battleground states of Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, all of which went to Trump four years ago, Biden is leading by numbers that should make Democrats feel comfortable. Several other states that Trump won in 2016, most notably Florida and North Carolina, are up for grabs.
Here are some of the reasons behind the Biden lift.
One: the virus. The election appears to be hinging on who voters believe will be most effective in dealing with the pandemic. Trump made it
Voters want Barack Obama back. That really helps Biden, because he’s the closest thing we can get to Obama in this election.
abundantly and very publicly clear early on that there wasn’t anything to fear from the coronavirus. But privately, Bob Woodward reveals in his new book, “Rage,” Trump knew from the start that the disease was to be feared. He kept that knowledge to himself.
That helps Biden. Two: The Trump campaign has failed in its attempts to make law and order the central issue of the election. Trump’s fearmongering about Black Lives Matter and protesters and vandals in cities such as Portland, Ore., and Kenosha, Wis., has not generated a great reaction from moderate Democrats or independents.
That helps Biden. Three: Older voters are abandoning Trump in large numbers. People above 65 are among the most reliable voters in every state. In 2016, they favored Trump. Not now.
Four: The questions about Biden’s age, health and intellectual skill appear to be falling by the wayside. The only place you hear about “Sleepy Joe” these days is on Fox News.
Five: The economy. Wall Street is doing great, but Main Street is hurting. The economic downturn will not be the decider in the race, but it adds to the general feeling of uncertainty. When people are asked the old standby — are you better off than you were four years ago? — the answer is, “No.”
And finally, voters want Barack Obama back. That really helps Biden, because he’s the closest thing we can get to Obama in this election.
Going postal: Warning to Democrats: President Trump’s attack on voting by mail is a prelude to what he’ll say if late ballots lead to his defeat.
Trump will try his best to ensure that his supporters go to the polls on election day itself, so the first reports out of the battleground states will show him winning.
Democrats, on the other hand, are working hard to get people to vote by mail. Voting by mail may increase Democratic turnout, but the ballots postmarked close to or on election day will be the last to be counted. In many states, the final tally won’t be known for days, even weeks.
If Trump is ahead on election night, he will declare victory and question every vote that comes in afterward.
If the late vote goes to Biden, Trump will cry fraud and say the election was stolen.
It won’t change the outcome, but it will give Trump the out he needs to explain his loss, and it will raise questions about the legitimacy of Biden’s win.
The best way to beat Trump at this game would for all states to report results only when 50% of the votes have been counted.
The nextbest way would be for states to count all mail ballots as soon as they arrive rather than waiting for the polls to close, to ensure they’re included in the first returns on election night.
Smalltown law: Dealing with law enforcement was never a problem for me growing up in Mineola, Texas.
There were rarely any cases of a sheriff pulling a gun on a Black man, simply because there was no need. If a Black man was suspected of a crime and needed to be brought in, the sheriff would talk to his housekeeper or the local Black barber.
“You go to the same church as Willie Brown, don’t you?” the sheriff would ask.
“Well, when you see him this Sunday, tell him to come by the office.” And you went.
The rules were simple. If a Black person was accused of a crime against a white person, the Black person was guilty.
If a Black person committed a crime against another Black person, no one even bothered to file charges.
If you had a problem with those rules, you had best get out of town.
Which is what I did. Thanks: A number of readers contacted me to say they missed the column being in the paper last week.
So did I.
I want to thank Gov. Gavin Newsom for signing legislation allowing for exceptions to the state’s gig worker law, allowing freelancers like myself to keep writing. Hanging out: I had a delightful lunch with the news anchor of all news anchors, Dennis Richmond, now retired from KTVU. Dennis lives in Nevada County just outside Grass Valley on a street called Hangtree Road.
I reminded him that Hangtree Road is not a good address for the only Black man in Grass Valley.
My friend Kevin O’Brien was at the lunch as well. When he parked his car on Pine Street, there was a lady panhandling on the sidewalk.
Kevin gave her $20. “Mister, I’m begging, not selling,” the lady said.
And with that, Kevin added another $20.