Olympics, questions are back on clock

The Earth has almost done its full rotation of the sun. And suddenly all the questions the sports world had 11 months ago are on the horizon again. Questions about spring training, fans in stands, NBA playoffs.

And the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics.

The Tokyo Games, originally scheduled for late July 2020, are supposed to take place in July 2021. But with the coronavirus still raging, with mutations surfacing, with vaccine rollout painfully slow and with athletes’ training compromised around the globe, the questions and doubts are pushing to the forefront once again.

It turns out that a year wasn’t enough time to get the coronavirus under control. But Olympic athletes can’t dwell on that.

“I can only control what I can control,” said San Francisco fencer Alexander Massialas, who has already qualified for Tokyo. “I can’t operate as though the Games aren’t happening, because if I do, I won’t be ready.

“I have a high level of optimism about the Games.”

Japan, like almost all of the world, is grappling with the pandemic. It was one of the first countries to report cases of the coronavirus but managed to effectively control outbreaks until recently. Earlier this month, the country declared a state of emergency and banned foreign nationals from entering the country.

Though Japan’s case numbers are mild in comparison to virusravaged countries like the United States, the surge has alarmed Japanese government officials and the public.

And opinions about the wisdom of holding the Olympics appear to be collateral damage. A recent poll by Japanese broadcasting company NHK found 77% of

respondents thought the Games should be postponed or canceled. There is certainly a level of distrust about whether the government is making decisions about lockdowns or other emergency measures with transparency, or with an eye toward protecting the nation’s enormous investment in the Olympics.

Complicating any optimism about the Games is the fact that Japan is among the last countries to undergo a largescale vaccination rollout. The first round of vaccines is not expected until the end of February. Japan has a history of vaccine wariness. Now, the process is accompanied by bickering and criticism in a country planning to welcome in the world in just a few months.

Government officials publicly insist that the Games will go on. But there are more and more cracks in that wall of confidence. A senior Japanese minister said the decision could “go either way.” An unnamed Japanese official quoted in the Times of London said the Games must be canceled and the government is looking for a facesaving measure. That report resulted in denials from Olympic officials.

In recent months, we have become accustomed to the herkyjerky, diminished quality of sports plunging forward. American team sports have forged ahead, postponing or canceling games, doing without star players, playing under competitively compromised conditions.

But those circumstances don’t work for the Olympics. There is no postponing an event for which one has worked his or her whole life. No subbing in someone from the practice squad in the effort to win an Olympic medal.

The upheaval we’ve seen caused by contact tracing and testing in professional and college team sports would be simply untenable in an Olympic setting. The NBA, with its relatively small rosters and highly organized travel, has postponed 23 games in just a few weeks, so it is hard to imagine what an outbreak in Tokyo would do during four weeks of Olympics and Paralympics.

The logistics for admitting, housing, quarantining and contract tracing the expected 11,000 athletes for the Olympics and 4,500 for the Paralympics would be a nightmare. In addition to athletes, thousands of workers, support staff, rights holders and media would descend on Tokyo. Whether or not fans are allowed remains to be seen, though it seems increasingly unlikely anyone besides domestic spectators would be admitted.

“I think an Olympics is possible, with this much lead time,” former Cal swimmer Nathan Adrian said via text. “The new variants are a little scary, but with comprehensive testing/mask/physical distancing protocol it can be done.”

Adrian, a testicular cancer survivor, and his wife Hallie expect their first baby in two weeks. The 32yearold, fivetime gold medalist hopes to make his fourth Olympic team. This week, news broke that USA Swimming plans to split qualifying into two meets, pushing lower qualifiers into a first wave.

Massialas, who has fenced in a parking lot outside his Sunset District facility because of indoor restrictions in San Francisco, found out this week that he can go to Colorado Springs for training next month. A lone international meet is scheduled for March in Qatar.

“Training the last few months has been tough,” Massialas said. “But I feel it won’t take too long to get my abilities back.”

For almost a year, Olympic athletes have been in a holding pattern, trying to train at peak level under difficult circumstances.

And still, after a full turn around the sun, the Tokyo Olympics are still no sure thing.

ANN KILLION