San Francisco Chronicle - (Sunday)
Array of parties could determine Netanyahu’s fate
JERUSALEM — A final batch of polls by Israeli media outlets shows a razorthin election, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s fate likely turning on the performance of small parties and a former ally who has criticized him but has not ruled out joining his coalition.
The elections on Tuesday — the fourth in less than two years — are widely seen as a referendum on Netanyahu, Israel’s longestserving prime minister, who has presided over one of the world’s most successful coronavirus vaccination campaigns but is also on trial for corruption.
The polls show Netanyahu’s rightwing Likud party in the lead, projecting that it will win around 30 seats in the 120member Knesset, Israel’s parliament. But an alliance with his natural allies, the ultraOrthodox parties and a small farright party, would only yield around 50 seats.
On the other side is an ideologically diverse array of parties committed to ousting Netanyahu, which together are projected to win 5660 seats, also just short of a majority. Yair Lapid’s centrist Yesh Atid party, the largest in the antiNetanyahu bloc, is projected to win around 20 seats.
The most likely kingmaker appears to be Naftali Bennett, a rightwing former ally of Netanyahu whose Yamina party is expected to win around 10 seats. He has not ruled out joining either camp. Mansour Abbas, the leader of an Arab Islamist party, is also uncommitted, but polls are divided on whether his party will win four seats or fall below the electoral threshold.
A slightly better or worse performance by either bloc could change the calculations. A number of small parties, including the farright Religious Zionist Party, the centrist Blue and White, and the leftwing Meretz, are at risk of falling below the electoral threshold and winning no seats.
The latest forecasts were based on several polls with similar results, which also track closely to recent polls by other media outlets. One, commissioned by the Kan broadcaster, surveyed 1,406 people and had a margin of error of 2.6%. The Maariv newspaper polled 1,001 people with a 3.2% margin of error, while the Israel Hayom newspaper surveyed 2,087 people with a margin of error of 2.1%.
Once results are official, the president will ask whomever appears most likely to form a government to try to do so, opening weeks of negotiations. If no one succeeds in assembling a 61seat ruling coalition, then another round of elections would be held later this year.