San Francisco Chronicle - (Sunday)
Young adults rushing for shots
California is embarking on vaccine “open season” Thursday, when the state expects to lift age and other restrictions for COVID19 shots. If other young adults are anything like Concord gamer KC Oliveros, clinics in the Bay Area and beyond can expect to see a lot of fresh faces.
Oliveros, 30, lives in Contra Costa County, where she and other young adults have gotten an early taste of what the rest of California may experience this week when everyone as young as 16 is eligible for vaccination. Getting a jump on the state’s target date, the county opened eligibility for the lifesaving shots to everyone 16 and older on March 30. It was the Bay Area’s first county and one of just a handful statewide to drop age requirements early.
Oliveros got her shot on April 3 after noticing on Twitter two days earlier that her county had opened vaccinations to her age group.
“I was looking forward to it just because it’s been a long time since we’re in this pandemic, so just the thought of getting it over with was exciting for me,” said Oliveros, a content creator who streams on Twitch.
The county’s first week of expanded eligibility may offer a window on how open season will go in the rest of the state.
Among early clues emerging from the county of some 1.2 million residents: Supply will meet demand and then some, eventually. But in the meantime, many residents should expect to wait in line for at least a couple days. Demand soared the first 24 hours after Contra Costa’s March 30 announcement, during which 50,000 people requested appointments, said deputy health officer Dr. Ori Tzvieli. That initial wave tapered down each subsequent day to 22,000 new requests the next day, then 13,000, then 10,000, before settling around 5,000, which is where things stand now.
The county did not say how many requests it was getting before the expansion, but county vaccination data show the number of daily doses administered countywide ticked up slightly but not dramatically, from an average of 12,500 doses the final week of March to 13,500 doses the first week of April.
The county vaccine system requires people to submit requests for appointments and wait to hear back from the county, which sends them a ticket with the information they need to schedule their shot. The backlog of people waiting for tickets has been shrinking as time goes on, with some waiting one or two days and others waiting a few days, Tzvieli said. As of Thursday, the county had reduced the backlog from 36,000 a week prior to 17,000.
In three to four weeks, available appointments will exceed the number of people who want them, the county is projecting. That is partly because the vaccine supply coming to the county is expected to increase over that time span — in contrast to many counties that are expecting less vaccine in coming weeks due to a nationwide shortfall in Johnson & Johnson vaccine deliveries to states. The county’s federally qualified health centers get their vaccine directly from the federal government, and the county expects an increase in those deliveries.
In addition, the county said, demand is stabilizing and may fall once more people get their appointments booked.
“We’re not far ... from a scenario when we have more appointments than demand,” Tzvieli said.
Another key insight: Demand from younger people appears to match that of older adults. People in their late teens, 20s and 30s are requesting appointments in numbers that are roughly in line with their overall proportion of the county population, Tzvieli said. Even among high schoolers, the vaccine has proven popular.
“I didn’t expect it to be this early on. I thought it would be open to people my age later,” said Dan Hernandez, 17, a dual high school and Contra Costa College student from Pinole. He submitted his online request Tuesday and awaited his appointment with nervous excitement. As of Friday, he was still waiting to hear back. Many of his friends have already received shots or plan to do so, he said.
Living with his parents during the pandemic, Hernandez said picking up takeout has been his riskiest activity, and he’d like the “peace of mind” a shot can bring him.
“I’ll feel so relieved after I go to the clinic and get my shot,” he said. “I’ll feel a little more secure. I won’t fear getting serious illness or hospitalized.” And young people in Contra Costa are showing more followthrough than older adults. After receiving a ticket to book an appointment, they go on to schedule the shot at a higher rate than people in the 65andover cohort — 80% compared to 70%. This could be tied to younger generations’ overall tech savvy or comfort level navigating the online booking process, Tzvieli said.
It was while scrolling through Twitter that Oliveros snagged her slot for the Johnson & Johnson singledose shot.
“I was just waiting around” for the statewide April 15 eligibility date, said Oliveros. Throughout the pandemic, she’d ventured out mainly for essential needs and was all too aware of the infection and death statistics and the chance for spread by people without symptoms. She said she was thrilled when the county opened up shots to her age group.
So was 16yearold Oscar Bloom.
Right when Contra Costa County announced the expansion, his mom signed him up for an appointment, he said. He got the first dose of the Pfizer vaccine on Wednesday.
“I was excited to get it because I knew that it would just help with safety,” said Bloom, a Moraga resident who plays baseball and football for Campolindo High School. “If you get it, the risk of getting COVID is lessened so much that it’s just so helpful.”
A few other counties, including Butte, Kern, Stanislaus and Long Beach, have also opened up shots to everyone as young as 16 ahead of the state’s Thursday target date. And locally, Alameda County on Wednesday and San Francisco on Friday expanded eligibility in lowincome ZIP codes.
Kern County’s early expansion kicked off a similar rush. After health officials expanded eligibility to all comers on Monday, people started booking appointments at a much faster rate, said county spokeswoman Michelle Corson. On
Wednesday, the Kern County Fairgrounds vaccination site, one of two mass vaccination sites the county, administered nearly 2,200 shots — “the biggest day since our launch in late January,” she said, and a 29% jump compared to the 1,700 shots a day the site averaged the previous week.
Tzvieli’s advice to other counties bracing for a similar anticipated surge in demand next week: It’s critical to have additional vaccine capacity in place to minimize how long people have to wait.
“Try to add capacity right at the same time because there will be a lot of interest,” he said. “Have clear messaging to the public so they’ll be patient. The initial onslaught will slow down.”
Each county has leeway to decide how to prioritize certain groups even once eligibility is open to all. Contra Costa, for example, first schedules people in the queue who live in the lowestincome areas based on the state’s Healthy Places Index, which weighs income, access to health care and other factors. Then, they prioritize based on age — people in their late teens or 20s may wait a little longer than people in the 40s, for instance.
“It’s very exciting,” Tzvieli said. “Every one of these doses that goes into an arm is a really positive moment in that person’s life. They’re feeling security and the ability to sleep well through the night, and from a social perspective, our ability as a society to reopen in a more normal way.”