San Francisco Chronicle - (Sunday)
Even if Elder’s out of step with many, he might win
Conservative talk show host Larry Elder is out of step with most Californians when it comes to abortion, the minimum wage, fracking, climate change and women in the workplace.
Nevertheless, Californians could be calling him “Gov. Elder” on Sept. 14, as the Republican could be elected in the state’s recall election with far less than 50% of the vote.
That is one of the quirks — or is it the feature? — of California’s century-old recall process. While Gov. Gavin Newsom could be recalled if more than 50% of the voters vote “yes,” his re
placement needs only to get a plurality of support to succeed him. (Polls show that likely voters are split on removing him.) With 46 replacement candidates on the ballot, it will be a challenge for any to win a majority.
In the 2003 recall of Gov. Gray Davis in which Arnold Schwarzenegger was elected, only four of the 135 candidates received more than 1% of the vote. Not only did Schwarzenegger win nearly 49% of the vote, he received roughly 200,000 more votes as a replacement candidate than Davis did in terms of people who opposed to the recall.
“We have the absurd situation where it's possible that Newsom could get 49% of the vote on the recall question and then be replaced by somebody who got 20% of the vote,” said Bob Shrum, director of the University of Southern California Center's for the Political Future and a former top Democratic strategist.
Because Elder — or any replacement candidate — could win with a sliver of support, they don't have to appeal to a broad section of voters.
“Most of the time, we're in elections where candidates try to find their way to the middle. And this is an election where a candidate doesn't necessarily have to find their way to the middle,” said Mark Baldassare, president and CEO of the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California and one of the state's leading pollsters.
Instead, Baldassare said, candidates can focus on views “that are going to bring out a certain portion of the electorate — and that could be the strategy for winning.” Elder's core audience is the 6 million Californians who voted for Donald Trump in 2020; 11 million backed Joe Biden.
The recall format benefits Elder, as he would be hardpressed to find a majority of Californians who support him on several issues important to many in the deep blue state. Here are some:
Minimum wage
Where Elder stands: Elder, a longtime libertarian, believes that there shouldn't be a minimum wage. As in zero. Instead, as he said last week, “If a willing seller and willing buyer of labor agree on a certain price, I'm not quite sure why it's the government's business to intrude on that.”
Where California stands: The current minimum wage in California is $14 per hour for employers with 26 or more employees and will climb to $15 an hour next year, thanks to a law signed by Gov. Jerry Brown in 2016. The wage floor is higher in several cities, including San Francisco and Emeryville.
A majority of Californians like it that way. Most adults (57%) said it was “very important” to raise the minimum wage in a 2015 Public Policy Institute of California poll.
Experts say a wage floor is particularly necessary during the pandemic. Low-paying industries had 15% fewer jobs in December 2020 than at the start of the pandemic, according to an analysis of federal labor statistics by the nonpartisan California Budget & Policy Center.
“The idea that California and its economy can be successful without a minimum wage is simply not based on reality, data, or the everyday experiences of working Californians and our communities,” said Alissa Anderson, a senior policy analyst with the center.
Abortion rights
Where Elder stands: Elder has said that the Roe vs. Wade abortion rights decision is one of the worst the Supreme Court has ever produced. He would like to see it overturned and let states set abortion restrictions. Where California stands: Californians have some of the strongest protections for abortion rights in the country. A July survey from the Public Policy Institute of California showed that 77% of Californians would not like to see Roe overturned. That same survey found that 61% thought that “some states are making it too difficult to get an abortion.”
Elder's lead in the polls “is horrifying from a reproductive freedom perspective,” Shannon Hovis, executive director of Naral California, which supports abortion rights. She backs Newsom and opposes the recall.
Noted Shrum: “Ronald Reagan was conservative, but (as governor) also signed, which he later recanted, what was then the one of the most liberal abortion rights bill in the country.”
Environment
Where Elder stands: Last week, Elder bemoaned “this war on oil and gas” in California that is “costing us middle-class jobs. I'm not quite sure what the trade-off benefit really is. We should be doing more for things like fracking; we're doing less.” He also questioned why Newsom called for California to explore being carbon neutral by 2035, 15 years earlier than planned, while “completely ignoring” the cost implications of such a move.
Where California stands: An October 2020 USC Schwarzenegger Institute-USC Price California Issues Poll found that 66% of Californians support ending fracking. But that depends by region, said Christian Grose, academic director of the institute. Californians who live in the more conservative Central Valley — where the oil industry provides jobs — are more supportive.
“On balance, the majority of Californians favor pro- environmental positions,” Grose said. “There's less support when it has the potential to hurt someone's business.”
Women in the workplace
Where Elder stands: Last week The Chronicle reported remarks that Elder made about pregnant women in his 2002 book, “Showdown: Confronting Bias, Lies, and the Special Interests that Divide America.” As my colleague Dustin Gardiner reported, Elder defended hiring discrimination against women who plan to become pregnant, suggesting it's OK for employers to ask women if they intend to have kids because it could raise costs for the business.
“Are there legitimate business reasons for a venture capitalist to ask a female entrepreneur whether and when she intends to have children? Hell, yes.” Elder wrote.
Elder didn't back off his remarks this week, saying that “I believe that government should not be intruding into the relationship between an employer and an employee. I believe that a female employer could ask questions of a female employee or a male employee that directly impacts on whether or not that person is going to be available to work full time.”
The Chronicle also reported that Elder said women should tolerate some crude language and behavior from men in the workplace and that sexual harassment doesn't hold women back in their careers.
Where California stands: A 2018 Stanford University poll revealed that the status of women in the workplace is important to many California voters. The study found that 78% of Californians think it is important to elect more women to office and 69% strongly favored equal pay for women.
The study found that 41% of female respondents experienced sexual harassment — and 73% of those said that the harassment occurred in the workplace. Shrum said Elder's remarks about women in the workforce may hurt him with some female voters. “Suburban women are going to be repelled by what Elder said,” Shrum said. “The revelations are going to be a (voter) turnaround machine for Democrats.”
But Trump was elected in 2016 in the wake of allegations of multiple accusations of sexual misconduct.
“But,” Shrum said, “he didn't cruise to victory California.”