What Dem strategists say about recall contenders

“Who should I vote for?”

I’ve been hearing that question from a lot of Democrats and left-leaning independent voters. These are people who oppose the recall but are dubious about Gov. Gavin Newsom’s advice not to vote for anyone to replace him.

A Change Research survey of 782 likely voters released Friday found that only 32% of people who plan to vote “no” on the recall have selected a candidate for the second question; 38% plan on leaving it blank. The main worry of some who don’t want

to do that: The risk that California’s next governor could be conservative talk show host Larry Elder — who is leading in many polls — given that the Los Angeles Republican is so far out of step with many Californians on several issues, as we pointed out last week.

So they’re staring at their mail-in recall ballot, scanning the list of 46 names. Stumped.

They don’t want to ignore that second question. Nor do they want to write in Newsom’s name, which wouldn’t count, because he is ineligible to replace himself. And they don’t recognize any of the nine Democrats listed there, because party leaders strongly discouraged any big-name Democrats from running. They didn’t want a repeat of the 2003 recall of Gov. Gray Davis, when many Democrats believe that voters were confused by the presence of Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante running as a replacement candidate under the slogan, “No on recall, Yes on Bustamante.”

Voters just want some guidance for their simple yet vexing question: In the event that Newsom is recalled on Sept. 14, whom should I vote for that is closest to my political viewpoint? Leaving it empty is not an option.

I relayed their query to more than a dozen top Democratic strategists and operatives in California. Their overwhelming advice (provided under the cloak of anonymity so they could speak freely):

Vote for former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, Yes (gasp!), a Republican.

Not that their advice constituted an endorsement.

“If someone put a gun to my head I would tell them to vote for Faulconer,” said one strategist. “The rest of that ballot is a complete joke and wouldn’t get elected to the City Council of Pawnee, Ind.”

“Probably Faulconer,” said another. “Because he won’t burn the house down.”

“We absolutely don’t want him as governor,” said a third, “but he’s not insane.”

Safe prediction: The

Faulconer campaign won’t be minting “But He’s Not Insane” campaign bumper stickers to hand out over the next two weeks.

For several strategists, their choice was sealed after a swift process of elimination. “Unfortunately,” said one Democratic consultant, “none of the Democrats on the ballot are qualified.”

Nevertheless, for hard-core Democrats like the strategists I tapped, the two-term mayor of a Democratic city was the next best thing to being an actual Democrat ... even though Faulconer voted for Donald Trump in 2020 after writing in former GOP House Speaker Paul Ryan four years earlier.

He “governed in San Diego as mayor as a moderate. He will return to being a moderate,” one strategist predicted, “if he wants to have any chance to get re-elected.”

“He’s pro-choice, has been a leader on climate change, and supports a path to citizenship for undocumented Californians,” said one strategist. “He understands complex government, having run the secondlargest city in the state.”

And if Faulconer didn’t turn out to be as moderate as advertised, some trusted that the Democratic supermajority in the Legislature would, as one put it, “block any horrible things a Republican governor would try to do.”

Given that there are twice as many registered Democrats as Republicans in California, “it’s highly unlikely that any Republican who might win the recall will get re-elected in 2022” when turnout would normally be much higher, the consultant continued. “At least Faulconer understands the machinations of government and will leave the office without doing nearly as much damage as any of the other candidates.”

That sounds like a second rejected bumper sticker: “Faulconer: Won’t Do as Much Damage as the Other Republicans.”

Not every Democratic strategist was on the gun-to-my-head Faulconer bandwagon. Others thought it was important to elect a Democrat.

One top strategist was concerned that if 88-year-old Sen Diane Feinstein were unable to complete her term, a GOP governor could choose a Republican to replace her. That shuffle would cause Democrats to lose their narrowest of narrow advantages in the Senate, and with it, any hope to advance President Biden’s agenda.

Here, the strategists were nearly unanimous in whom they’d chose: 29-year-old Ventura County real estate investor Kevin Paffrath, who has a sliver of name recognition thanks to the 1.7 million viewers who watch him dispense investment advice on YouTube. He’s done well in some polls, too.

One challenge: remembering Paffrath’s name.

One strategist who advocated for him called Paffrath “the YouTube guy.” Another preferred “the YouTube dude.” And one coupled his suggestion by mocking Paffrath’s idea to address California’s water shortage by building a pipeline to the Mississippi River.

“Vote for the YouTube dude — at least that way we are covered if DiFi needs to step down. And as a bonus, he is going to give us a giant straw to suck up the Mississippi River,” the strategist said. “Seriously people, vote for the Democrat who could win. And that Democrat is Kevin Paffrath.”

A few refused to suggest any Republican and stood behind Newsom’s admonition not to pick a successor. Said one consultant: “The most important thing Dems can do is get everyone they know to vote on the recall.”

That advice may be sinking in. The Change Research poll found that 57% of likely voters have either already voted or plan to vote to keep Newsom in office, while 42% support tossing him. Just 1% are undecided. It’s an early sign that voters want Newsom to stick around.

The Newsom campaign thinks focusing on Faulconer is misguided since “the reality is that that Elder is far ahead of the competition in every poll,” said anti-recall spokesperson Nathan Click. Change Research found Elder leading among the replacement candidates with 27% of the vote, including 67% of those who voted for Trump in 2020. No other candidate surveyed — including Faulconer — had even double-digit support.

“He’s consolidating the Trump vote,” Click said. “Any comfort that Democrats get from voting on the second question will be simply a false sense of security.”

***

That wasn’t the only query I’m hearing repeatedly about the recall. You’ve got questions; we’ve got answers.

Will writing in Gavin Newsom’s name invalidate my ballot? No, it won’t, said Jenna Dresner, a spokesperson for Secretary of State Shirley Weber.

“Each question is counted separately, so a vote for one does not impact the other. No matter how a voter votes on the question of the recall, they can still cast a vote for a replacement candidate or leave either question blank,” Dresner told me. “Gavin Newsom cannot run as a replacement candidate for himself, so a write-in vote for him will not be counted, however it will not disqualify the ballot.”

Why is the list of certified write-in candidates published ballots go out? On Sept. 3, Weber will publish a list of certified write-in candidates. But reader Marcy Kates asked me, “Why on earth wasn’t the list of certified write-in candidates published before the ballots went out? Right now people are voting without complete information.”

Dresner said that according to the state election law, “those who wish to file their candidacy as a write-in candidate have until 14 days prior to the election to do so, a rule that governs all California elections. The California secretary of state then takes the time required to certify the paperwork. As such, the certified list of write-in candidates will become available September 3.”

“Any changes to this process would need to be made by the state Legislature,” Dresner said. As for how voters will know who is on that list, Dresner said “we will promote the write-in list on our official communication channels, and voters can look for the writein list on our website,” www.sos.ca.gov.

Realistically, the chances of a write-in candidate generating the type of momentum needed to win in such a short time frame is next to nil unless the name is Oprah. And even then it would be tough. One of many reasons: Roughly 13% of California voters have already turned in their ballots, according to Political Data, a Sacramento firm that is tracking ballots as they are turned into election officials. That number will be a lot higher by Sept. 3.

Will Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis be on the list of certified writein candidates? No, Kounalakis reiterated to me Friday.

“I will not be a certified write-in,” Kounalakis texted me. “I’m telling everyone they can write my name if they want but it won’t be counted! So better to leave it blank.”

For those Democrats who believe in leaving the ballot blank, that is.

“We absolutely don’t want him as governor, but he’s not insane.”

Democratic strategist, on GOP candidate Kevin Faulconer

Lea Suzuki / The Chronicle Gov. Gavin Newsom cannot run as a replacement candidate for himself in the recall election.