San Francisco Chronicle - (Sunday)
Playoff drive to start on ground
49ers’ success running ball could be key against Vikings
The Vikings will be without their top four defensive linemen. And the 49ers could have their leading rusher back after a one-game absence.
The 49ers’ recent turnaround has been keyed by 86 rushing attempts, their most in a two-game span since 1997. And the Vikings are allowing 4.8 yards per attempt, second highest in the NFL.
The last time the 49ers met Minnesota, 22 months ago, they had 47 rushing attempts in a divisional playoff win, their most carries in a game since 2011.
Do you see where this is going?
Yes, get ready for the 49ers (5-5) to run, run and run some more on Sunday when they host the Vikings (5-5) in a game with significant playoff implications. How significant? The 49ers currently have a 52% chance of making the postseason, according to FiveThirtyEight.com, the statistical analysis website. A win Sunday pushes that number to 69%. A loss drops it to 27%. The 49ers, who have won three of their past four games, have seemingly made no secret that they plan to take their next step toward the playoffs by continuing to lean on a rushing attack that has gained 327 yards in blowout wins over the Rams and Jaguars, their second-highest two-game total in the past two seasons. Running back Elijah Mitchell (finger), who ranks second among rookies in rushing (560 yards) despite missing three games, is questionable to play after missing last week.
What’s the key to having success when the opponent knows what’s coming? Posed that question, 49ers tight end George Kittle did nothing to suggest the 49ers had an alternate game plan. He talked of being able to “control the line of scrimmage” in what he expects to be a “back-andforth slugfest.”
“At the end of the day, it’s who’s tougher, meaner and who wants it more,” Kittle
said.
But do the Vikings have the personnel in the trenches to slug it out? They won’t have starting defensive tackles Dalvin Tomlinson (COVID-19 list) and Michael Pierce (injured reserve). They will also be without Pro Bowl defensive ends Danielle Hunter (injured reserve) and Everson Griffen (personal matter).
How dire is the situation? Discussing Griffen’s absence, Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer told reporters defensive ends Patrick Jones, a rookie third-round pick who has played 20 snaps, and Eddie Yarbrough would need to emerge. Yarbrough has played seven snaps in two games since he was released from the 49ers’ practice squad Nov. 2. Zimmer, who noted the 49ers use pre-snap motion more than any NFL team, isn’t expecting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to throw 40 passes.
“They do a lot of window dressing, but they want to be a power football team,” Zimmer said. “Get the ball to the backs and try get them some seams.”
The 49ers’ defense will have its own challenges with a seventh-ranked offense featuring a Pro Bowl foursome: quarterback Kirk Cousins, running back Dalvin Cook and wide receivers Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. Cousins ranks third in the NFL in passer rating (106.3), Jefferson is fourth in receiving yards (944) and Cooks ranks fifth in rushing (734).
The 49ers are most wary of Jefferson, 22, the 22nd overall pick last year who set an NFL rookie record for receiving yards (1,400). Jefferson has 17 catches for 312 yards with two touchdowns in the Vikings’ past two games. He also has 13 career 100-yard games, tied for second most by a wideout in his first two seasons in the Super Bowl era.
A key to defensive success? “Definitely cover No. 18,” pass rusher Nick Bosa said, referring to Jefferson.
Last year, after the 49ers traded up to select wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk 25th overall, three spots after Jefferson, 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan said he viewed Aiyuk and the Cowboys CeeDee Lamb as the draft’s top two wideouts. However, he has since adjusted his rankings.
“I think he’s one of the best receivers in the league, if not the best,” Shanahan said of Jefferson. “I think he’s been unbelievable.”