U.S. details high price if Russia mounts invasion

WASHINGTON — The Biden administration and its allies are assembling a punishing set of financial, technology and military sanctions against Russia that they say would go into effect within hours of an invasion of Ukraine, hoping to make clear to President Vladimir Putin the high cost he would pay if he sends troops across the border.

In interviews, officials described details of those plans for the first time, just before a series of diplomatic negotiations to defuse the crisis with Moscow, one of the most perilous moments in Europe since the end of the Cold War. The talks begin Monday in Geneva and then move across Europe. The plans the United States has discussed with allies in recent days include cutting off Russia’s largest financial institutions from global transactions, imposing an embargo on American-made or American-designed technology needed for defense-related and consumer industries, and arming insurgents in Ukraine who would conduct what would amount to a guerrilla war against a Russian military occupation, if it comes to that.

Such moves are rarely telegraphed in advance. But with the negotiations looming — and the fate of Europe’s post-Cold War borders and NATO’s military presence on the continent at stake — President Biden’s advisers say they are trying to signal to Putin exactly what he would face, at home and abroad, in hopes of influencing his decisions in coming weeks. On Wednesday, members of the NATO alliance will meet with Russia in Brussels. The next day in Vienna, Ukrainian officials will also be at the table, for the first time, for talks at the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.

U.S. diplomats worry that after the whirlwind week, the Russians could declare that their security concerns are not being met — and use the failure of talks as a justification for military action.

“No one should be surprised if Russia instigates a provocation or incident,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Friday, and “then tries to use it to justify military intervention, hoping that by the time the world realizes the ruse, it’ll be too late.”

This time, he said, “we’ve been clear with Russia about what it will face if it continues on this path, including economic measures that we haven’t used before — massive consequences.”

Andriy Dubchak / Associated Press A Ukrainian soldier patrols along the line of separation from Russia-backed rebels in the eastern Donetsk region on Friday. Russia has massed troops at its border with Ukraine.