San Francisco Chronicle - (Sunday)
Reality bites: Giants should become sellers
The San Francisco Giants are exceptionally streaky, on the field and with the perception of public opinion. Win seven of eight. Let’s buy. Lose eight of nine. Let’s sell. Win seven of nine. Let’s buy. Lose seven in a row. Let’s sell.
That has been their story since June 10, up and down and up and down, not exactly the consistency that makes a front office believe this could be a formidable playoff team.
If the Giants are buyers at Tuesday’s trade deadline, their most likely hope in the new playoff format would be sneaking into the final wild-card spot as the No. 6 seed to earn a best-of-three series against the No. 3 seed — Milwaukee, based on today’s standings — with all games played on the road.
Not a single game at Oracle Park in the first round.
Those aren’t great odds, even with Logan Webb and Carlos Rodón starting the first two games, and the winner would face the National League’s No. 2 seed in the Division Series, currently the Mets.
Is it worth it with this team to be all in, to further sacrifice the future by surrendering more prospects for a rental as was the case last year with Kris Bryant? The Giants play the percentages with everything they do, and the numbers point in one analytical and logical direction:
Sell.
The chips are there. Assets could be had. Help could be on the way for 2023 and 2024. Whatever worked last year isn’t working this year, and the only way to get younger and quicker is to trade for other teams’ promising players.
Selling at the deadline is not something the Giants ordinarily do, but if the 2022 season taught us anything, it’s that this team no longer can compete with the Dodgers and Padres by maintaining the status quo.
Yes, they’re difficult decisions, to trade Rodón, who earned a spot on the All-Star team; or Wilmer Flores, whom I’d say has been the MVP among position players; or reliever Dominic Leone; or even Joc Pederson, another All-Star who’s a local guy with fondness for the fans, coaching staff and front office.
I mean, do the Rays want two months of Evan Longoria for old times’ sake? Would Brandon Belt lift his no-trade powers to join a playoff-bound team?
All could be free agents after the season and not part of next year’s roster construction. Getting prospects back is better than getting nothing at all. Many other players are expendable, of course. All except Webb.
Juan Soto, all two years and two months of him, would be an excellent acquisition, but it could come at a price — prized lefty Kyle Harrison, for starters — that would set back the farm system unless Farhan Zaidi pulls off the coup of the trade season.
Technically, Zaidi simultaneously could buy and sell to assure some excitement the rest of 2022 and keep hope alive for the start of next season, and perhaps that means the first player-for-player deal with the Oakland Athletics since Darren Lewis-for-Ernie Riles in 1990.
Several A’s would benefit the Giants, not just starter Frankie Montas but also outfielder Ramón Laureano and catcher Sean Murphy. Laureano and Tony Kemp (Mike Yastrzemski’s roommate at Vanderbilt) are high-energy players who could spark a clubhouse that needs some oomph.
The Giants have not played themselves into a position for Zaidi to be a buyer only, and no one knows which way the next streak will take them. Clearly, this is not an organization that can afford to lose elite prospects for the sake of a short-term fix. It’s about longterm sustainability, and it starts now. Selling makes the most sense.
Around the majors
How would the playoff races change with a Soto trade? In some cases, not so much. For the Dodgers and Yankees, who have comfortable first-place leads, it would be more about trying to lock down a World Series appearance. For the Padres and Mariners, who opened the weekend 12 and 11 games out of first place, respectively, it would be more about securing the highest playoff seed possible and letting Soto lead the way in October. It could be a bigger deal for the Cardinals and Mets, both desperately trying to win their divisions to avoid a wildcard berth. In any case, World Series odds would soar for any team that gets the outfielder. The beauty of Soto is that he’s under club control through 2024, so even lowerrevenue teams should be all in, including the Rays and Guardians. Unlike elite free agents, such as Aaron Judge, who will hit the market in the offseason, Soto is in his early 20s and relatively affordable. Because teams from all market levels can compete in the Soto sweepstakes, elevating the competition, we’re about to witness a trade that could attract the greatest haul in deadline history. What a fascinating example of long-term incompetency in Anaheim. That the Angels will miss the postseason for an eighth straight year despite the presence of Mike Trout, the last five of those years with Shohei Ohtani, the two greatest players in the game, is a lesson on how not to run a franchise. The Giants didn’t deliver a title in the Barry Bonds administration, you say? At least they reached the postseason four times and were one clean bullpen game away from a 2002 World Series championship. The Angels can’t even qualify for October baseball anymore. The one time they did on Trout’s watch, 2014, they were swept in the opening series by Kansas City. And now we’re hearing Ohtani, a free agent after next season, could be traded. Could a front office that can’t build a team around Trout and Ohtani be trusted to orchestrate an Ohtani deal that could make the team better? Highly doubtful. It’s Will Clark Weekend, so another note on the Thrill: His career WAR, according to Baseball-Reference.com, was 56.5. The fellow who was inducted last week as a firstballot Hall of Famer, David Ortiz, had a 55.3 WAR. This counts just regular-season prowess, and the baseball industry equates Ortiz as one of the greatest postseason performers — he hit .289 with a .404 on-base percentage and .543 slugging percentage (.947 OPS). Clark was pretty fair in the postseason as well: .333/ .409/.547 (.956 OPS). Will to Cooperstown, anyone?
Speaking of old Giants and Hall of Fame conversations, Jeff Kent’s career WAR also tops Ortiz’s, 55.4.
Bonds’ WAR is a mere 162.8. So, yeah, this is a talker. Ortiz became the first player to be inducted who reportedly flunked a test for performanceenhancing drugs, and even if it came during survey testing in 2003, before punitive testing began, his Cooperstown presence could open the door for Bonds and Roger Clemens. Even Hall of Famers Reggie Jackson and Rich Gossage, who have been militant in keeping out proven or suspected PED users, now say they’d be open to Bonds and Clemens joining the fraternity. That’s a whole different mind-set.