San Francisco Chronicle - (Sunday)
Ohtani amazing — Judge more so
Imagine ranking among the top four in your league in home runs, total bases and OPS. And wins and strikeouts and ERA. And not winning the MVP award.
That shows how ridiculous Aaron Judge’s season has been and how heated the MVP debate has become. There’s a clear winner in the Bronx and a clear winner in Anaheim: our guy. In other places, it’s a great conversation.
Other players have done what Judge is doing, unless he becomes the first player with both 60 homers and a Triple Crown. No one has done what Shohei Ohtani is doing: he has hit 34 homers and struck out 213 batters. Don’t give me Babe Ruth; the Babe was a pitcher and then a hitter and didn’t do it simultaneously like Ohtani, who has only one other comp in MLB history: Himself in 2021.
MVP voting was unanimous last year. There was no debate. Ohtani got all 30 first-place votes on the BBWAA ballot after hitting 46 homers and striking out 156.
So this year, he’s doing more of the same. His stats show he has taken a small step backward at the plate but a big step forward on the mound, winning 15 games, lowering his ERA from 3.18 to 2.35 and leading the league with 11.9 K’s per nine innings. That’s Cy Young Award stuff.
If he put this season together in 2021, he’d probably still be the unanimous winner. But it’s 2022, and two things need to be noted. First, Judge’s season is spectacular. Second, while it can be argued Ohtani’s season is equally spectacular, we’ve seen it before. It’s not as trendy.
Not that repeating greatness should be in this equation, but it is. Ohtani could probably win the award every year because he dominates on so many levels, like Michael Jordan or LeBron James, but sometimes voters seek the trendy pick if only to mix it up.
Make no mistake, Ohtani’s competition is better this year, though Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was flirting with his own Triple Crown pursuit in 2021. Judge not only has rubbed elbows with his 60-homer brethren Roger Maris and Ruth, he is most responsible for the Yankees winning the AL East.
Ohtani’s Angels are horrible. Even more so than last year. Not his fault. It’s the front office’s once again for failing to take advantage of having Ohtani and Mike Trout on the same roster. Historically, MVP voting has usually been about rewarding a player whose value is getting his team to the postseason. On that front, Judge clearly stands out.
In this corner, that’s where we’re leaning. Judge is the guy, but isn’t it fabulous each is sprinting to the finish line? A day after Judge hit his 61st home run, tying Maris for the AL record — 12 behind Barry Bonds’ MLB record — Ohtani faced the A’s, extended his hit streak to 14 games and carried a no-hit bid into the eighth inning. During that 14-game streak, Ohtani went 3-0 with a 0.90 ERA on the mound.
Eventually, we might need a Shohei Ohtani Award to honor a two-way skill set, given annually to the best combined hitter and pitcher in each league, because we hope that’s how the game will evolve.
NL MVP: The Dodgers set a franchise record for wins, yet they’re so good and so balanced that they won’t have the MVP. Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and several others have been terrific, but it’s possible the top two vote-getters would be on another team: Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado of the Cardinals.
No. 2 could be Betts or Freeman or San Diego’s Manny Machado. If it’s Arenado, teammates would finish 1-2 in the voting for the first time since the Giants’ Jeff Kent and Barry Bonds in 2000. But No. 1 needs to be Goldschmidt, who led in a bunch of offensive categories through August and has slipped in September, which hasn’t mattered because the Cardinals clinched their division.
Goldshmidt is no longer in the Triple Crown conversation, but he still leads in OPS and several advanced metrics. The race seems tighter than it was a month ago, but the trophy should still go to St. Louis’ first baseman.
Cy Young Award: If Ohtani doesn’t win the MVP, could he win the Cy Young? At the very least, he should be top five, but the field features Houston’s remarkable 39-year-old Justin Verlander, who returned from Tommy John surgery and is posting a 1.80 ERA, 0.85 WHIP with a league-high 17 wins. He has thrown just 170 innings, not so bad when hardly anyone reaches 200 anymore. Verlander gets the nod over Chicago’s Dylan Cease, New York’s Gerrit Cole, Toronto’s Alek Manoah — and even Ohtani.
Miami’s Sandy Alcantara is the NL frontrunner, his ERA slightly behind the Dodgers’ Julio Urias, but Alcantara easily leads the pack in innings and has thrown six complete games in an era in which one is exceptional. The Giants’ Carlos Rodón, whose eye is on the strikeout crown, should get love on the five-person ballot.
Rookie of the Year: Seattle’s Julio Rodriguez is fun to watch, the third rookie in history in the 25-25 club (homers and steals) and he was a mustwatch presence at the Home Run Derby — he cleared the wall 81 times! His OPS is deep into the .800s, and he helped the Mariners end a 21-year playoff drought. The NL is down to two Atlanta teammates, pitcher Spencer Strider and center fielder Michael Harris II; we’ll call it a draw, the Braves are fortunate to have both. Manager of the Year: Seattle’s Scott Servais is an excellent AL candidate, as are Cleveland’s Terry Francona and Houston’s Dusty Baker, but we’ll take Brandon Hyde for making the Orioles, 110-game losers in 2021, relevant for much of the season. The NL award is Buck Showalter’s to lose, depending on if his Mets win the East. Either way, he’ll likely finish ahead of St. Louis’ Oliver Marmol and Philadelphia’s Rob Thomson.