San Francisco Chronicle - (Sunday)
Can inconsistent 49ers show they’ll contend?
Because the San Francisco 49ers looked so good in SoCal last Sunday, complete with the emergence of their newly acquired running back as a threeheaded monster, it’s tempting to spend their bye weekend daydreaming about grand conquests on the horizon.
The Niners are getting healthier. They’ll have a revived Jimmy G. slinging it to Run/ Catch/Throw CMC and Deebo, not to mention BA and Kittle and Juice. They’ll surely go on a spirited second-half run like they did last year, only this time they’ll finish the job, and red and gold confetti will fall on Market Street in mid-February.
Alas, it’s time to pull out one of my favorite movie quotes, uttered by Harvey Keitel’s Winston Wolfe during the classic “Pulp Fiction” cleanup scene — and I paraphrase, because this is a family newspaper: “Let’s not start scratching each other’s backs just yet.”
The 49ers are 4-4, and if any adjective has characterized their play during the first eight games, it’s inconsistent. They’ve looked very, very good; they’ve looked awful; and they’ve been everywhere in between. They have more impact players at multiple positions than any team in football, but many of those players are older and injury-prone.
We can make a lot of excuses for their choppy first half, and try to convince ourselves that the trade for Christian McCaffrey changes everything. At some point, however, we have to confront reality: Teams that muddle their way through a
significant part of an NFL season tend to get exposed when it matters.
Let’s take a closer look at what the Niners actually have accomplished heading into their bye. For starters, they’ve faced just two opponents who took winning records into Week 9: The Seattle Seahawks, who lead the NFC West at 5-3, and the Kansas City Chiefs. Both of those games took place at Levi’s Stadium, with vastly different results.
The 49ers mauled the Seahawks in Week 2, a game best remembered for Trey Lance’s season-ending ankle injury and the triumphant return of Jimmy Garoppolo. In retrospect, that was the Niners’ best win of the first half of the season, by far.
Perceived to be in tanking mode after trading Russell Wilson, Pete Carroll’s team has defied that logic and remade itself. Since being effectively shut out in Santa Clara — Seattle’s only points in that 27-7 decision came on a blocked field-goal try returned for a
touchdown — the Seahawks have averaged 31 points per game.
That’s really the Niners’ only victory of distinction. Let’s not waste time discussing the road romp over the Panthers, back when McCaffrey still played for them.
Yes, the 49ers have swept the Los Angeles Rams in impressive fashion, but the defending Super Bowl champs are a hot mess at the moment. With an oft-manhandled offensive line, an over-reliance on receiver Cooper Kupp and a defense that ranks 18th in points allowed and has forced only eight turnovers, the Rams (3-4) have issues, and reaching the postseason will be a struggle. The vanquishing of San Francisco’s archrivals twice in October might have filled Niners fans with warmth like an Irish coffee at the Buena Vista, but those victories might not age well.
There have also been three bad losses, beginning with the clunker in Chicago that opened the season. It’s easy to rationalize those defeats to the Bears (monsoon), Broncos (Garoppolo’s first start after a lost offseason) and Falcons
(lots of missing players), but the Niners’ strongest teams of the past — and I’m including the 2012 and 2019 squads that reached the Super Bowl — would not have lost all three.
Then there was the fiasco against the Chiefs just two Sundays ago. It’s tough to reconcile what we saw at Levi’s that day with the burgeoning fantasies of the Niners emerging as a super team come January and February.
Yeah, I know, it was Patrick Mahomes, and he embarrasses a lot of opponents. I also know that if the Chiefs — or Bills — come out of the AFC, they’ll be pretty damn confident come Super Sunday, and with good reason.
The Chiefs and Bills are complete teams that habitually play at a high level, and when they don’t, their elite quarterbacks often compensate at key moments. The 49ers have a very specific style of play which, in optimal conditions, can allow them to prevail against anyone. Yet doing what they did in January — pulling out two tightly contested road playoff victories against division winners — requires a lot of things to go right, and that’s
hard to replicate upon command.
First, of course, the Niners have to get to the postseason. They’re well positioned, given that they’re in striking range of the Seahawks and have a favorable geographical schedule (six games at home, two on the road, and one in Mexico City). Oh, and one other thing — how shall we put this? — the NFC is trash.
Which NFC team — and yes, I’m including the undefeated Eagles — do you trust to dominate in the postseason? Make the playoffs, and anyone in the conference can dream big.
The 49ers, even in their inconsistent state, should be able to procure one of the NFC’s seven playoff spots, and a division title is absolutely within reach. Their rematch with the Seahawks, a Thursday night game in chilly Seattle on Dec. 15, very well might decide the NFC West. If you think the Niners will cruise to victory in that one, McCaffrey or no McCaffrey, you haven’t been paying attention to this rivalry, or to the team the Niners have been this season.
On a great day, the 49ers would roll most opponents.
However, championship teams are more accurately measured by their ability to flourish under adverse conditions, and slogging through half a season before turning it on and going on a run isn’t a birthright.
If the Niners aren’t at their best, teams like the Chargers, Saints, Dolphins, Bucs and even the Commanders could come to Levi’s and prevail, rendering moot the fans’ current wave of enthusiasm.
Daydreams can come true, but sometimes, they’re just illusory whims that turn out to be pipe dreams. It’s up to the 49ers to come back from the bye, tighten things up and demonstrate the consistency required to compete for a sixth Lombardi Trophy.
What they’ve done to this point, even on a stellar Sunday at SoFi Stadium seven days ago, isn’t good enough.
You heard me, just like you heard “The Wolf.” Let’s not start scratching each other’s backs just yet.