ABOUT THE DATA

We used Cal-Adapt’s temperature increase projections for the end of the 21st century (2070 to 2099) compared with about 100 years earlier (1961 to 1990) under a scenario where greenhouse gas emissions rise throughout the century, which researchers believe represents a more conservative estimate. We tracked population changes using the 2010 and 2020 decennial census data.

The temperature projections are generated using global climate models, and allow variations to be seen at a fine scale, according to Cal-Adapt. These projections are used by the government for California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment. We grouped census tracts containing population data into four separate groups based on their average projected temperature increase.