San Francisco Chronicle - (Sunday)
Why is Schiff boosting a GOP opponent?
California’s increasingly personal Senate race took a weird turn Wednesday when one Democratic candidate criticized another Democrat for “boxing out qualified Democratic women candidates,” in his “deeply cynical” new ad that mentions a male Republican rival.
The controversy combines Californians’ loathing of Donald Trump with gender politics, California’s unusual primary system and taps into all the reasons many Americans have become cynical and jaded about politics.
The dustup started when Rep. Adam Schiff, who leads in the polls, released a 30-second ad Thursday that contrasts the Burbank lawmaker and Steve Garvey, the former Los Angeles Dodger making his first run for office.
The ad presents Garvey, accurately, as “the leading Republican in the race” who voted twice for Trump. It contrasts that with Schiff, described as “the leading Democrat” and says that Garvey is “too conservative for California.”
Tying Garvey to Trump now is a stretch. At last month’s Senate debate, Garvey repeatedly declined to say whether he would support Trump if he is the Republican nominee. He even told Politico, in a rare burst of near-specificity for the wishy-washy Garvey, that he would consider voting
for President Joe Biden.
“When the time comes, I’ll do exactly what I said to you. I will look at the two opponents. I will determine what they did and at that time, I will make my choice,” Garvey said at the debate, referring to who he would support for president.
Here’s where the threedimensional political chess move comes in. Yes, Garvey is the leading Republican in the race. But in California, the top two vote-getters in the primary, regardless of what party they belong to, advance to the general election in November.
So while Garvey may be the leading Republican in the polls, he is virtually tied with Rep. Katie Porter, the Orange County Democrat. A University of Southern California Dornsife/Price poll out Thursday shows Schiff
leading with 25% of the vote, and Garvey and Porter tied for second with 15% each. Democratic Rep. Barbara Lee of Oakland trails with 7%.
Schiff would much rather face Garvey in November than Porter or Lee in a state where there are twice as many Democratic voters as Republicans. The USC poll found that 29% of all likely voters are still undecided, including 42% of independent voters and 37% of Republican voters.
If Schiff ’s ad can help elevate Garvey among those undecided Republican and right-leaning independents, then he can get the easier matchup in November.
Garvey could use the help. He raised only $610,920, according to federal campaign filing documents released this week, a pittance in a state
where a week of TV advertising in a major market costs $2 million to $4 million. Garvey conceded to me that few voters under 35 have heard of him.
Schiff ’s ad is a multimillion-dollar buy, according to his campaign, that will run statewide on TV and cable, as well as on digital platforms. It will provide exposure that Garvey can’t afford now. Schiff can afford to, as he has nearly $35 million cash on hand compared with $13.2 million for Porter and $815,960 for Lee, according to campaign finance reports.
Porter blasted the ad Thursday, saying, “Adam Schiff knows he will lose to me in November. That’s what this brazenly cynical ad is about — furthering his own political career, boxing out qualified Democratic women
candidates, and boosting a Republican candidate to do it. We need honest leadership, not political games.”
Schiff’s communications director Marisol Samayoa defended the ad, saying, “Garvey will be a rubber stamp for Donald Trump’s extreme agenda if elected. California voters deserve to know the differences between the two top-polling candidates.”
Garvey campaign spokesman Matt Shupe called the ad an example of “trite political hatchet jobs. Californians are tired of this divisive rhetoric that aims to separate us into simple buckets against ourselves rather than unite us in common cause to better all of our lives.”
Schiff’s play isn’t an unusual move in California. Two years ago, an independent expenditure group that supported Democratic Attorney General Rob Bonta’s election, similarly boosted a Republican challenger in an effort to opponentshop.
Two of Bonta’s conservative (and best-funded) challengers were Nathan Hochman, a former federal prosecutor who was endorsed by the California Republican Party, and Republican-turned-independent Sacramento County District Attorney Anne Marie Schubert. Both supported abortion rights, depriving Bonta of using one of the prime differentiators between him and his top conservative rivals.
So the pro-Bonta team created radio ads for conservative talk radio stations that featured — sometimes in a kind of oddly neutral way — the most conservative candidate in the race, Eric Early, who opposes abortion rights. The play was to charge up pro-Trump conservatives to rally behind the underfunded Early.
The strategy helped. Early finished in third place, leap-frogging Schubert, who the Bonta forces most feared facing in a one-on-one matchup. Bonta easily defeated Hochman in the fall.
In an odd twist, Schiff ’s move here to elevate Garvey could hurt Early, who is the secondhighest polling Republican in the Senate race. Early has only $140,254 cash on hand, according to campaign filing reports.
This time, however, he’s not the leading Democrat’s preferred Republican opponent.