San Francisco Chronicle - (Sunday)
FEARLESS FORECASTS
Mahomes is hard to bet against after leading Chiefs’ impressive playoff run
What’s the No. 1 concern for the 49ers that could be the difference in their quest for their sixth Lombardi Trophy?
Eric Branch:
Patrick Lavon Mahomes II. He’s 14-3 in postseason games and will become the youngest player to start four Super Bowls. He’s 3–0 in his career against the 49ers, beating them at home, on the road and in the neutral-site Super Bowl. The 49ers don’t talk about another QB like they discuss Mahomes. He doesn’t inspire fear, but … unease. Cornerback Charvarius Ward, Mahomes’ teammate for four seasons, recalled the first game of his rookie season in 2018 when Mahomes began his first season as a starter with four touchdown passes in a win against the Chargers: “That’s when I was like, ‘Damn, I’ve never seen anything like this.’ ”
I think this is the best team the 49ers have ever faced in a Super Bowl. I’ve heard some say the 1984 Dolphins, but Dan Marino was a second-year player back then. These Chiefs might not have as much offensive talent as the Tyreek Hill team the 49ers faced four years ago, but now they are seasoned Super Bowl veterans, with one of the game’s great coaches and the most effective quarterback in the game.
Ann Killion:
Scott Ostler:
Apologies for going back to the same old well, but: Jake Moody. In every 49ers fan’s heart lurks the fear that Moody could go all Nuke LaLoosh.
Michael Silver:
Patrick Mahomes. Thanks for asking.
How do you think Kyle Shanahan has changed, if at all, since losing Super Bowl LIV to the Chiefs? Branch:
A few more wrinkles and a bit more gray in his stubble? His game management — viewed by some as too conservative — hasn’t changed dramatically. Remember, he drew criticism for his cautious pre-halftime play-calling in Super Bowl LIV. He has been able to expand and diversify his offense since that game, thanks to the arrivals of Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, Trent Williams and Brock Purdy.
Killion:
Experience changes everyone. He’s a better coach. He has been humbled — starting with that loss to the Chiefs four years ago and two painful NFC Championship Game losses since then. He trusts his quarterback more than he did four years ago. He has the game’s best running back, which he didn’t have last time. But Shanahan — with his tough history in the Super Bowl — also has more pressure on him than any other single individual involved in this game.
Ostler:
Shanahan has loosened up a teeny bit. He’ll never be Gamblin’ Dan Campbell, but don’t be surprised if Shanahan goes for it on 4th-and-2 near midfield, or goes for a touchdown before halftime. Also, Shanahan’s artistic range is greater. Last Super Bowl, he was working with the four crayons you get at a restaurant. This time, the 64 box.
His approach is the same, but his confidence in his quarterback has vastly increased. In Purdy, Shanahan finally has a 49ers QB who he believes sees the game the way he does, and it has made him a more aggressive and layered game-planner and play-caller. Shanahan has scars and is desperate to shed his “can’t win the big one” stigma, but his process remains the same: He builds the best roster he can, approaches each game and opponent as a stand-alone entity and devotes every ounce of energy to the cause. He has another great opportunity to seize the Lombardi Trophy and it will be fascinating to see what happens.
Silver: Who is your pick for the surprise player who comes up big in the Super Bowl, someone who might go from respected regular to forever famous?
Branch:
The 49ers’ run defense has been gouged in the playoffs and part of the issue has been a lack of effort. ( Just an aside here: How can that be an issue in the NFC Championship Game?) K.C. running back Isiah Pacheco treats every rushing attempt like he’ll be released if he doesn’t gain at least 4 yards. Pacheco will have 100-plus yards and a TD.
I hope for the kid’s sake it’s not Jake Moody having a “wide right” moment that would make him forever infamous. I’m going to say running back Isiah Pacheco, who is beloved by K.C. fans but isn’t exactly a household name yet.
Juszczyk. This wouldn’t be a shocker, because he had an MVP-type performance the last time in the Super Bowl. He told me he felt really comfortable in that game. Shanahan could see that. Watch for Juszczyk to get four impactful touches.
Something tells me that at least one of the Chiefs’ receivers will have a breakout game, simply because Mahomes is on the Super Bowl stage and epic things tend to happen when he releases the ball. So … Justin Watson? Skyy Moore? I’ll go with Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who had a quiet 2023 season but made a massive catch to clinch the Chiefs’ AFC Championship Game victory over the Ravens and has game-breaking speed.
Killion:
Ostler:Kyle
Silver:
If the 49ers lose, how long might it take them to get back to the Super Bowl? Branch:
I would wonder about physical and emotional fatigue after four deep playoff runs (and endless heartbreak) in five seasons with a roster that includes Trent Williams
Matt Slocum/Associated Press (35), Kyle Juszczyk (32), Javon Hargrave (31), George Kittle (30) and Arik Armstead (30). … Still, it’s a locker room stuffed with proud and productive players. There’s still no way they wouldn’t begin the 2024 season as Super Bowl contenders.
Killion:
I think they can get back. They were clearly the best team in the NFC this season and should be returning almost the same roster. But football changes fast these days, thanks to free agency and injuries, and they might not get this opportunity again. The 49ers of the 1990s thought they’d be back after their win in Super Bowl XXIX, but that’s where the dynasty ended. If they keep playing against Patrick Mahomes, the 49ers risk becoming the Buffalo Bills of the 21st century.
Twelve months. The 49ers’ soul would be crushed flat, but the NFL is like a “Roadrunner” cartoon, you bounce back to life quickly. They will be loaded next season. But if they don’t make it back next season, it all starts to unravel.
Ostler:
Silver:
Man, that’s a hard thing to think about. On paper — with Purdy still on a rookie deal and so many stars — the 49ers would be positioned for another run in 2024. But four close calls in five years, and three in a row, tend to take a toll on a franchise. Also, it’s football, and injuries and attrition and chemistry and weird bounces all seem to conspire against repeated trips to the Super Bowl (or conference-title games). Bottom line: This is an opportunity the 49ers need to seize. The problem is, they’re playing against a quarterback who almost never loses in these contexts.
With all of that in mind, do the 49ers reverse the outcome of Super Bowl LIV with a Super Bowl LVIII win, or do the Chiefs double their fun and take home another Lombardi Trophy? Branch:
Mahomes is 2-1 in Super Bowls and the only time he lost, his offensive line was comprised of five guys borrowed from Utah State. Plus, something feels off with the 49ers, whose defenders are pledging to try their very hardest now that they’re in the Super Bowl.
Chiefs 30, 49ers 21. Killion:
Got to go with my gut here: I’ve been saying all season that whoever comes out of the AFC will win the Super Bowl and nothing about the way the playoffs have unfolded has caused me to change my mind. The Chiefs got here by surviving a gantlet: Miami in freezing Arrowhead and wins at Buffalo and Baltimore. The 49ers, in contrast, struggled mightily in two games at home. Patrick Mahomes knows how to win Super Bowls. The good news for 49ers fans is that my predictions are almost always wrong.
Chiefs 27, 49ers 24. Ostler:
When Purdy blew his golden opportunity to choke under pressure on that final drive against the Packers, I had to concede that he just doesn’t understand pressure, so rule out a deer-in-headlights situation Sunday. Only an idiot would pick against Patrick Mahomes, but fools rush in:
49ers 38, Chiefs 35.
Silver:
As I wrote earlier, I don’t see how anyone (a bettor or otherwise) who has watched these two teams during the playoffs could assess their relative strengths and view the 49ers as the stronger side. The Chiefs’ defense has been playing at an elite level, and as an overall team, they’ve had three really impressive playoff performances. The 49ers were fortunate to survive their first game (against the Packers) and got manhandled for a half by Detroit in the NFC Championship Game. They haven’t brought their A-game since the final three quarters of the victory over the Eagles in early December. And yet: The 49ers absolutely can defeat K.C. if they play at a high level. I think they can, and likely will. The issue is, even if that happens, Mahomes can spoil the whole thing by doing what he almost always seems to do. Because of him, I’m picking Kansas City to win a close one: