San Francisco Chronicle (Sunday)
Big changes likely next year for AC Transit
Riders of the East Bay’s largest bus operator could see the most significant service changes since the pandemic under a years-long plan that would alter bus routes, frequencies and schedules in Alameda and Contra Costa counties.
The potential service changes run the gamut from the consolidation of some routes, adjustments in where some routes begin or end, changes in service frequencies and the creation of new bus lines.
AC Transit has spent years planning for its bus service “realignment” to account for longlasting shifts in ridership habits spurred by the pandemic — such as fewer people using the buses, and fewer people using AC Transit to traverse the Bay Bridge.
Officials at the bus agency, which is among the Bay Area transit agencies with the highest ridership, aim to implement the service changes next year.
AC Transit spokesperson Robert Lyles said the agency’s realignment plan “is a top-tobottom review of all of our bus lines in light of those shifts in rider patterns.”
Transbay routes that cross the Bay Bridge to shuttle riders from Oakland and the East Bay, for instance, have seen noticeable declines in ridership. The trend stems from the enduring popularity of remote and hybrid work that’s led to even more significant drops in ridership on BART and Caltrain, which both heavily relied on office
commuters before COVID.
Transit riders in the region have returned to buses faster than trains, though none of the Bay Area’s largest operators has fully recovered its 2019 ridership. AC Transit has recovered 75% of pre-pandemic ridership in part because more than half of its riders don’t have access to a car. The agency is the region’s largest standalone bus operator, logging roughly 3.4 million monthly trips in April.
If the plan for service changes is approved by the AC Transit board, 10 bus lines would run more frequently. Fifteen lines
would operate less frequent service than its current levels. Many lines would not see any changes in frequency. It’s unclear when the transit board will make a final decision.
The plan calls for creating three new bus lines, including a 51 route that would merge the current 51A and 51B lines that require a transfer at BART’s Rockridge Station. The new line would offer continuous service from Lake Merritt to UC Berkeley, though it would no longer operate through Alameda.
Such trade-offs have made the agency’s realignment process
a contentious one.
Officials at the East Bay bus agency are trying to implement the proposed changes without raising AC Transit’s operating costs, meaning the realignment plan assumes no changes from current service levels.
Like BART, Muni and Caltrain, AC Transit is one of the Bay Area transit agencies facing a “fiscal cliff” after it runs out of state and federal pandemic funds.
Agency officials project a $28 million operating deficit starting in fiscal 2026, which begins July 2025. AC Transit expects to run out of state subsidies by fiscal 2027. That year the agency expects a $59 million deficit, followed by shortfalls of $30 million and $29 million the following two fiscal years.
A worst-case scenario for AC Transit could mean a 20% cut in service, according to a recent analysis by the San Francisco County Transportation Authority.
The bus operator also faces logistical challenges. For years the agency has struggled to hire and retain enough bus drivers to sustain its budgeted service. Some of the agency’s bus operators spoke out against the realignment plan, telling board directors at a recent hearing that the proposed schedules would leave them little room for bathroom breaks between runs.
Jean Walsh, an AC Transit director representing parts of Oakland, Berkeley and Emeryville, said much of riders’ feedback about the realignment plan shares a common thread. They want more service, but “it’s very hard to provide that,” Walsh said, given the agency’s financial state.
“We have to provide service where people need it, and we need to have frequent lines that can transport a lot of people very reliably, quickly and frequently,” Walsh said. “So it’s about balancing the trade-offs.”