‘Top 2’ shakes up state
Congress: New system puts California Democrats in intra-party quandary
Some of the most competitive House races in California in November could pit Democrats against Democrats, analysts said.
But while state Democrats are likely to pick up a couple of seats in Congress in the general election, Tuesday’s primary results will also force left-leaning organizations to think hard about where — and where not — to focus their resources this fall.
The “top two” primary created several Democrat-versus-Democrat races in November that would have been impossible under the previous system. Nationally, that could help Democrats in their efforts to win back 25 congressional seats and regain control of the House. Nonpartisan analysts believe Democrats could pick up as many as five seats in California in November.
While the number of California Democrats in Congress probably will grow, there will be a near-term cost to the party.
Races such as the battle in the East Bay’s 15th Congressional District, which will probably pit two Democrats against each other,
will divert liberal resources from other parts of California, said Paul Mitchell, a Democratic consultant who has analyzed the demography of California’s congressional districts for its redistricting process.
Draining Democrats’ funds
Such intra-party battles will drain Democratic Party money, analysts said. Also, gay rights, labor and environmental grassroots activists will be spread thinner as the Democratic battles splinter their resources.
That will be the case in the San Fernando Valley race between longtime Democratic Reps. Howard Berman and Brad Sherman. They have spent a combined $5 million on their primary race — a total that the deep-pocketed congressmen will multiply by November.
Another race likely to be affected will be the 15th District Democrat-on-Democrat face-off between Rep. Pete Stark, D-Fremont, and Alameda County prosecutor and Dublin City Councilman Eric Swalwell, who dueled in Tuesday’s primary.
Some partisan races
But other parts of California will see competitive, partisan races in November.
“It used to be that you could count the number of competitive races in California on one hand — and have fingers left over,” said Nathan Gonzales, deputy editor of the Rothenberg Political Report, a nonpartisan analytical group that tracks races.
One of the most keenly watched contests in the Central Valley will pit Lodi Republican Ricky Gill, 25, against three-term Democratic incumbent Rep. Jerry McNerney, D-Stockton.
Gill, who challenged McNerney in Tuesday’s primary, raised $1.3 million — among the most nationally by GOP House candidates — despite never holding a fulltime job. Gill is a recent graduate of UC Berkeley’s Boalt Hall School of Law.
Another race likely to draw national attention will be between first-term incumbent Rep. Jeff Denham, R-Turlock (Stanislaus County), and farmworker-turned-astronaut Jose Hernandez, a Democrat, who challenged him Tuesday.
Many analysts consider Denham to be vulnerable: Registered voters who are Democrats hold a slight edge over Republican voters in the district, which also has a high percentage of Latino voters.
In theory, one of the benefits of the “top two” primary was supposed to be that it would attract more moderate candidates because they would have to attract voters of all stripes to advance to the general election.
Santa Barbara County
One of the bellwether areas analysts were watching Tuesday is Santa Barbara County’s 24th Congressional District. Its voters are 39 percent Democratic and 36 percent Republican, and 20 percent of them have declined to state a party affiliation.
On Tuesday, one of the state’s few high-profile moderate Republicans, former Lt. Gov. Abel Maldonado of Santa Maria, faced off against incumbent Democratic Rep. Lois Capps of Santa Barbara in a four-candidate field. Thanks to the “top two” primary, Maldonado and Capps will meet again in November.