New landscape: Change in voting rules, redrawn districts reshape election
The potentially dramatic effects of two landmark ballot measures approved by California voters in recent years began to emerge Tuesday with a primary election that could lead to shifts in the state’s legislative profile in Sacramento and Washington.
In the Bay Area, the new order was most apparent in southern Alameda County, where 19-term Democratic Rep. Fortney “Pete” Stark of Fremont was leading county prosecutor Eric Swalwell in the redrawn 15th Congressional District — but by far less than typical for an incumbent.
Come the November election, Stark will be facing not a Republican, but fellow Democrat Swalwell — the result of the inaugural run of the state’s “top two” primary system, in which the two leading vote-getters in the primary advance to the fall ballot regardless of party affiliation. The idea was approved by voters as Proposition 14 in 2010.
Early results indicated that several other contests for the House and state Legislature could pit two candidates from the same party
against each other in November.
Californians were also voting for the first time for candidates vying to represent legislative and congressional districts drawn up not by gerrymandering politicians or the courts, but by a citizens’ commission — the result of a ballot measure that voters passed in 2008, Proposition 11. Stark was one of several incumbents once considered invincible and now thought to be in danger of losing their jobs in redrawn districts.
One incumbent who had no worries Tuesday was Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein, seeking her fourth full term. She clobbered her 23 opponents on the ballot — beating her closest rival, Republican Elizabeth Emken, by a 4-to-1 ratio. The two will face each other in the November election.
In a move that will reshape the state Legislature, Californians handily passed Proposition 28, which will reduce legislators’ maximum term to 12 years from 14 but allow them to serve the entire stretch in either the Assembly or the Senate.
The other initiative on the ballot, Proposition 29, was narrowly ahead. The initiative, which would add $1 a pack to the cigarette tax for cancer research, was the focus of a $47 million advertising barrage fueled largely by tobacco companies.
No drama at top
The presidential primaries — marquee races in some years — were devoid of drama this time. Mitt Romney, who has already amassed more delegates than he needs for the Republican nomination, handily won the GOP primary against candidates who have given up their campaigns. President Obama was unopposed on the Democratic ballot.
In the Senate race, Feinstein’s commanding lead was no surprise. Republican leaders were relieved that Emken was running in second and not Orly Taitz, a skeptic of Obama’s natural-born status who had placed well in some polls. The Republican establishment viewed her as an embarrassment and all but disowned her before the primary, and she was running far back in the pack.
The lack of suspense at the top of the ballot contributed to a dampening of voter turnout. The Field Poll estimated that only 35 percent of the state’s registered voters would cast ballots in the election, which would be a record low for a presidential primary.
National implications
The redrawn district boundaries and new “top two” rule for the general election led some observers to suggest that the primary could be the first step in Democrats picking up one to six House seats.
That is potentially important for the party’s “Drive for 25,” the number of seats Democrats need to wrest from Republicans nationally to regain control of the chamber they lost in the 2010 election.
In the Bay Area, however, the changes put Stark, one of the state’s senior Democrats, at risk. The 80-year-old liberal, who holds the record in the California delegation for his tenure in office — nearly 40 years — had a surprisingly slim lead over Swalwell, 31, a Dublin City Council member and prosecutor running his first race in the national spotlight.
Primary gaffes
During the primary, Stark committed a series of headlinemaking gaffes in a district that now includes more moderate cities in eastern Alameda County, a constituency to which the congressman appeared to have difficulty adjusting.
After falsely accusing Swalwell in a debate of accepting bribes and later charging Chronicle columnist Debra J. Saunders with contributing to his opponent — two statements for which Stark later apologized — he rejected a debate sponsored by the chambers of commerce of Dublin, Pleasanton, San Ramon, Danville and Livermore, all cities that were added to his redrawn district.
Stark also failed to show up for a scheduled appearance at the Livermore Rotary Club.
Valley race
In the 10th Congressional District in the San Joaquin Valley, Republican incumbent Rep. Jeff Denham of Turlock (Stanislaus County) will face rising-star Democrat and former astronaut Jose Hernandez in November.
Independent Chad Condit, the son of former Democratic Rep. Gary Condit, a longtime force in the valley whose career was derailed by unfounded rumors of a link to the 2001 slaying of Washington intern Chandra Levy, ran a distant third.
In another valley race watched closely nationally, Democratic incumbent Rep. Jerry McNerney was headed for a November contest with GOP rising star Ricky Gill, who only last week turned 25 — making him just old enough to take a job in Congress.
McNerney’s two GOP challengers, Gill and John McDonald, together were exceeding the incumbent’s showing in the Ninth Congressional District. That may suggest a tough November general election contest pitting McNerney — whose re-election is a top national Democratic priority — against Gill, whose campaign has drawn GOP money from around the country.
In coastal Congressional District Two, Democrat Jared Huffman held a commanding lead over a crowd of competitors aiming to replace the retiring Democratic Rep. Lynn Woolsey. In a surprise, Republican Daniel Adams was running in second place in the overwhelmingly Democratic district, with progressive Democrat Norman Solomon close behind in third.
Tech executive Stacy Lawson — a candidate who earned the support of many monied Democratic players and was expected to pose a challenge for second place — ran fourth.
Southern contest
In Southern California, the primary battle gaining the most attention was the contest pitting two Democratic incumbents thrown into the same San Fernando Valley district by redistricting: Reps. Howard Berman and Brad Sherman.
In early returns, Sherman held a narrow lead over Berman, setting up a November contest between the congressional veterans.
Superstar endorsers were attracted to the race in the 30th District, including former President Bill Clinton and former Democratic presidential nominee Michael Dukakis on Sherman’s side, and Hollywood icons Steven Spielberg and David Geffen for Berman.