Cigarette tax: The outcome of Proposition 29, which would add a $1 tax to a pack of cigarettes, underscores a law of politics: Money talks, and tobacco companies spent $47 million to defeat the measure.
The tobacco industry is on the verge of a significant political victory in California after spending nearly $47 million to fight the $1-a-pack-tax known as Proposition 29.
The measure was losing by just 63,000 votes Wednesday, with an estimated 1 million ballots still to be counted. Yet, only two months ago surveys showed that Prop. 29 supporters had nothing to worry about: The tax was ahead by double digits.
A barrage of negative advertisements, however, helped sap support for the tobacco tax. The close race — which may not be decided for weeks — underscores a long-known fact in politics: Money talks.
“What money buys you is exposure,” said David McCuan, a professor of political science at Sonoma State University who specializes in state politics.
That was certainly the case for Ricky Gill, a previously unknown 25-year-old candidate who raised $1.3 million in a Central Valley congressional race — more than his threeterm incumbent rival Rep. Jerry McNerney, D-Stockton.
Gill has never held a fulltime job. But the son of two prominent doctors and landowners attracted national attention with his fundraising prowess — bolstered by his parents’ connections — and ultimately secured nearly 40 percent of the vote in a threecandidate field. While McNerney beat Gill by nine percentage points on Tuesday, the rising GOP star easily captured enough votes to advance to the November runoff against McNerney in a district that includes parts of Contra Costa, Sacramento and San Joaquin counties.
$1 million to lose
Big spenders, however, aren’t always big winners.
Democratic business executive Stacey Lawson was a first-time candidate with no political experience when she launched her run for an open House seat in a realigned North Coast district. She tapped into her business contacts and raised $1 million — more than any of her 11 rivals.
But with thousands of ballots left to be counted, Lawson is in fourth place. Republican Dan Roberts, who spent roughly 20 percent of what she did, is in second place, behind Assemblyman Jared Huffman, and headed to the November election. Lawson was hurt by a poor voting record and the fact that she had lived in the district for only three years.
‘A fighting chance’
“What a lot of political science teaches us is that money is necessary but insufficient for winning,” said Thad Kousser, an associate political science professor at UC San Diego. “Nobody can run on a shoestring budget unless they are a 12-time incumbent running unopposed … but you’ve got to have half a million dollars to even get your name out there if you are a new candidate in a crowded field. Money can give you a fighting chance, but it’s not going to guarantee you a win.”
That’s a lesson that supporters of Democratic Assembly candidate Brian Johnson are learning this week.
Independent groups spent more than $2 million on competing Democratic candidates in that San Fernando Valley Assembly race, with most of it — $1.4 million — spent by pro-charter school groups in support of Johnson.
But it’s still unclear whether Johnson will even qualify for a November runoff — he has just 83 more votes than a Republican science teacher who raised no money. While the new district is safely Democratic, with just 19 percent of voters registered Republican, the presence of five Democrats apparently split the majority party’s vote and handed Jay Stern, the unknown sole Republican candidate, an opening.
Kousser said that outcome proves another cardinal rule of partisan politics: While money “pays for an introduction to the electorate,” being an incumbent elected official — or just a member of the right political party — “introduces you for free.” Many voters faced with a crowded ballot or unknown candidates, he said, will simply vote based on the letter next to someone’s name.
That’s not the case in initiative contests, said pollster Mark Baldassare. Ballot initiatives have neither party affiliations nor the personality of candidates.
No attachment
“The thing about initiatives is they are unlike people, who voters get attached to,” said Baldassare, who is president of the Public Policy Institute of California. “They are more about ideas, as opposed to candidates or parties.”
In the case of the cigarette tax, he said, opponents relied on several arguments that resonated with both left- and right-wing voters. Additionally, he noted, it’s far easier to persuade people to vote against a ballot measure than for one.
“The default for California voters is no, so the challenge for the yes side is to convince voters that there is a real, justifiable reason to change public policy,” he said. “It’s relatively easy for the no campaign to find some flaw in a ballot initiative or something wrong with the idea or the people behind a measure.”
That’s exactly what opponents of the tobacco tax did with their advertising campaign against Prop. 29, he said. A Public Policy Institute poll released two weeks ago found a 14-point drop in support for the tobacco tax between March and May. That kind of swing in support would have been nearly impossible for the yes side to accomplish, even if they’d had the money, Baldassare said.
Ultimately, it’s impossible to predict how much of an impact spending will have on any race, said Kousser.
“Probably the biggest lesson is this — and it makes reading the tea leaves complicated — is that people spend the most money when they are most in trouble,” he said. “So often you see high-spending campaigns losing, it’s not because the money wasn’t effective, it’s because the money wasn’t able to dig them out of the hole they were already in.”