Find value in futures bets
A Las Vegas gambler who calls himself Vegas Dave was rooting hard for the Kansas City Royals to win the World Series — not because he bet on the team in October, but because he bet in April as the baseball season got under way. These are called futures bets, and they’re placed on a team to win the title.
Last spring, Vegas Dave got odds as high as 30-1 on the Royals, who in 2014 took the Giants to the seventh game of the World Series. He was stunned he could get 30-1, and kept betting until the odds came down to 8-1.
In all, he wagered about $100,000 and collected almost $2.5 million when the Royals won the World Series. Vegas Dave, who runs the gambling advice website It’s Vegas Dave, calls it a record-setting futures bet win and says he “crushed” the Vegas sports books.
Jay Kornegay, who manages the Westgate SuperBook, where Vegas Dave placed some of his bets, said the casino had a “small, manageable loss” on the Royals.
In a phone conversation after his big win, Vegas Dave, whose real name is Dave Oancea, had some advice for futures bettors. Wager early: Though they won last year’s American League pennant, the Royals were long shots during the offseason and early this season. Vegas Dave saw value and pounced. Avoid the favorites: Why bet the Washington Nationals (the 2015 preseason favorite) at 6-1, for example, when they might not even make the playoffs? (They didn’t.) Look for longer shots that are underrated and offer a bigger payoff. Bet smart: “Don’t bet with your heart, bet with your mind,” he said. “And don’t bet your hometown city.” This is important when considering betting on teams near Nevada. Lots of Giants and Dodgers fans bet their hometown team, which drives odds down, so payoffs on those teams are smaller than they should be.
Like many professional gamblers, Oancea’s life has been a roller-coaster. He’s been broke, having burned through not just his savings but his parents’ money, and attended Gamblers Anonymous meetings. He says he’s transcended his need to gamble and now bets solely to support himself.
Oancea doesn’t believe anyone will match his $2.45 million win because casinos cap the amount players can wager on futures. That’s why he had to bet at several different casinos to put so much money on the Royals.
Along the way, Oancea’s parents became Royals fans. Now it’s payback time for them. “I told them seven months ago that if the Royals win the World Series, I’m going to buy them their dream home,” he said. “So we are starting to look at properties next week. Making my parents proud is more rewarding to me than the money.”