Clinton, Sanders now face the core Dems
For Democrats, the race for president starts now.
The opening contests in Iowa and New Hampshire may have kicked off the primary season, but those small, heavily rural and overwhelmingly white states have little in common with the urban, minority- laden core of the national Democratic Party.
“Now it’s on to Nevada, South Carolina, and beyond,” a triumphant Bernie Sanders shouted to his supporters Tuesday night after crushing Hillary Clinton in the New Hampshire presidential primary. He spoke just minutes after Clinton promised to “fight for every vote in every state.”
Both candidates wasted little time in pivoting toward the new reality of the race, which includes the Feb. 20 caucuses in Nevada, the Feb. 27 primary in South Carolina and a number of votes in other states next month.
Sanders, flush with momentum from his surprisingly strong showing in Iowa and his blowout win Tuesday night, was in New York City Wednesday morning for a very visible — and highly publicized — breakfast meeting with civil rights leader and MSNBC commentator Al Sharpton in Harlem.
The Vermont senator also appeared on ABC’s “The View,”
talking about his New Hampshire win and brushing aside concerns that his progressive call for an economic and political revolution won’t find fertile ground among minority voters.
“We have a lot of support within the African American community,” Sanders said. “When youth unemployment in the African American community — kids who are unemployed or underemployed for high school graduates — is 51 percent, don’t tell me we do not need to invest heavily in the African American community.”
Clinton team upbeat
Clinton was also quick to focus on what she hopes will be much friendlier territory. Almost as soon as the grim numbers started rolling in Tuesday, Robby Mook, campaign manager for the former secretary of state, released an upbeat, sunshine-filled memo assuring her increasingly nervous supporters that the New Hampshire disaster — and even the upcoming contests in South Carolina and Nevada — really don’t mean that much.
Those first four states have just 4 percent of the delegates needed for the Democratic presidential nomination, while “the 28 states that vote ( or caucus) in March will award 56 percent of the delegates needed to win,” the memo said.
Since “the March states better reflect the true diversity of the Democratic Party and the nation,” Clinton’s support among minorities means she “is well positioned to build a strong — potentially insurmountable — delegate lead next month.”
But the two upcoming races are desperately important to both candidates. Sanders has to show that his progressive program and growing appeal to new voters can travel beyond his New England and Midwest comfort zones. And Clinton needs some big wins to both stem the political bleeding and prove that she’s still the party’s top choice, a candidate who can win “real” Democratic states.
Leader in polls
Clinton is the early favorite in the next two contests, with the most recent polls giving her a 50 to 27 percent lead in Nevada and a 37- percentagepoint lead in South Carolina. But those early polls don’t reflect the surprising strength Sanders showed in both Iowa and New Hampshire.
“Sanders has hired some sharp people here,” said David Woodard, a political science professor at South Carolina’s Clemson University. “I’m not saying he’ll win, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he did better than expected.” South Carolina is a deep- red state, and “we don’t get many visits from presidential candidates after March 1,” said Todd Shaw, a professor of political science and African American studies at the University of South Carolina.
“Sanders is a new commodity, and this is new territory for him,” Shaw said. “The state looks more like the national Democratic Party than Iowa or New Hampshire and to win, you need the African American vote to be highly mobilized.”
Better than half the primary voters are expected to be black, and Clinton and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, are well- known, popular figures in the black community.
But while Clinton is well- positioned to win the primary, “we’re starting to see some defections to Sanders from younger African American electeds and community leaders,” Shaw added. “There might be some differences in the black vote among age lines.”
Clinton’s team is working to shore up her minority firewall, pushing for the endorsement of veteran Rep. James Clyburn, South Carolina’s lone Democratic congressman. While Clyburn had vowed to stay neutral in the primary, he told the Washington Post that after getting heavy pressure from Clinton supporters, including his wife and daughter, he’s “re- evaluating” that decision.
Battle for Latinos
The battle in Nevada is for Latino voters, and Sanders’ team is confident it has narrowed the gap with Clinton, thanks to an appeal to those minority voters. Since caucuses are typically dominated by grassroots activists willing to deal with the sometimes complicated rules and the time commitment needed to support their choice, Sanders is hoping the enthusiasm he’s generating, particularly among younger voters, will boost his showing.
But on the downside for Sanders, the South Carolina and Nevada votes are Democrat- only affairs, unlike New Hampshire, which has an open primary and where a CNN exit poll found that only 58 percent of voters in the Democratic primary actually were registered Democrats.
Although Sanders, who bills himself as a democratic socialist, handily beat Clinton 60 to 38 percent among all voters, he had a much narrower margin, 52 to 48 percent, among the Democrats who voted.
Clinton’s people, however, are working to lower expectations in Nevada, hoping to avoid a situation where Sanders gets called the winner just for finishing a close second.
“There’s an important Hispanic element to the Democratic caucus in Nevada,” a Clinton spokesman, Brian Fallon, told MSNBC Tuesday. “But it’s still a state that is 80 percent white voters. You have a caucus- style format, and ( Sanders) will have the momentum coming out of New Hampshire.”