Analysis:
Frontrunner Donald Trump may have to put up specifics soon.
Donald Trump has climbed to the top of the polls by repeating the simple message that he’s going to help America win again. Trump loves to talk about winning so much that he dropped some form of the word “win” eight times in his 13- minute New Hampshire victory speech.
However, as he often has during his six- month campaign, Trump neglected to explain one thing during that speech: How he’s going to do it. So far no one — not his opponents and not the media — has pressed him very hard on the details of how he’ll “make America great again.”
If he isn’t forced to start explaining soon, he will skate to the Republican nomination as a candidate with a winning slogan but no obvious action plan.
Trump’s how- challenged campaign hasn’t mattered to voters, as his rhetoric has made him a conduit for their anger at and frustration with the political system. Not being forced to lay out concrete policy positions and directions has enabled him to dodge explaining how he careened between liberal and conservative positions on abortion rights and health care during his pre- political career.
Or to explain with much specificity how he’s “going to be the greatest jobs president that God ever created,” as he boasted Tuesday. Or how “we’re going to knock the hell out of ( ISIS).” Or how “e’re going to beat Mexico at trade.”
Stealing the spotlight
The major TV networks have largely abetted his avoidance of details by giving him an undue share of the spotlight with little accountability. In 2015, the three major broadcast networks devoted 327 minutes — or 32 percent of their campaign coverage — to Trump, according to the Tyndall Report, which monitors nightly news programs. That’s compared with 122 minutes for Democrat Hillary Clinton, 22 for Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, and 20 for Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.
Trump’s “how” honeymoon could end as soon as the campaign heads to the Feb. 20 primary in South Carolina, where he holds a massive lead in the polls ( 36 percent to 20 percent for Texas Sen. Ted Cruz — his closest challenger — according to a Real Clear Politics average of major surveys).
Cruz turns to kids
Cruz’s campaign is hoping to take a bite out of that lead with an online ad this week that features children playing with a toy Trump action figure. At one point, a child says “He pretends to be a Republican!”
That awkward attempt to use children — and allegedly, humor — to derail Trump illustrates how hard his rivals have found it to attack him.
If the rest of Trump’s opponents don’t start demanding that the political neophyte spell out how he’s going to back up his braggadocio, analysts say they could find themselves following New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former Hewlett- Packard CEO Carly Fiorina out of the race.
“His opponents are going to have to press him on it soon or else it is going to be too late,” said Robert Oldendick, a professor of political science at the University of South Carolina and executive director of the school’s Institute for Public Service and Policy Research. “It’s at the point that they can’t let him get so much momentum that he can’t be stopped.”
The next high- profile opportunity chance for the GOP field to challenge Trump will be during Saturday’s debate on CBS. But in the past, they’ve been reluctant to take him on in those settings, and the short- answer format allows Trump to speak in generalities. Those who have tried to press him on details, like Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, have been swatted away with Trump’s insults.
When Bush tried to push back on Trump mocking him for having “low energy,” at a debate last fall Trump said “I know you want to build up your energy, Jeb, but it’s not working very well.” When Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul chided Trump for his sophomoric insults about people’s appearance at another debate, Trump shot back, “I never attacked ( Paul) on his looks, and believe me there is plenty of subject matter right there.” Paul dropped out of the race this month.
But Trump will soon start to feel heat off the debate stage. New Hampshire and Iowa were largely retail campaigning states where candidates — other than Trump, who stuck to a few large rallies — spent most of their time talking with voters in smaller settings.
Attack ads coming
But that sort of intimate connection will become impractical in the series of primaries and caucuses coming up. Instead, the GOP field will communicate its message to voters via TV and online attack ads — and one of their main targets will be Trump.
A super PAC backed by a former Mitt Romney campaign staffer is planning to spend millions blasting Trump in South Carolina for his positions on guns, taxes and health care. Super PACs supporting Bush have already spent $ 10.3 million in ads in South Carolina and have tens of millions more to spend.
Blasting Trump with ads deflated him slightly before the Iowa caucuses. Seven out of every 10 broadcast ads that mentioned Trump in the 10 days before the caucuses attacked him in some way, an Associated Press review found.
Meanwhile, analysts say Trump’s best strategy is to keep doing what he’s doing. Once he starts explaining himself, “he becomes just like another politician. He’s not Donald Trump anymore,” said Bill Whalen, a research fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University.
Explaining “how” hasn’t mattered so far to voters, as Trump has run a largely aspirational campaign — in between insulting Muslims, Mexicans, women and the disabled. That aspirational message helped him to capture voters across all demographics in New Hampshire, according to exit polls.
“What makes him unique is that he says, ‘ The system is corrupt and broken and I’m the only one who can fix it,’ ” said David Damore, a professor of political science at the University of Nevada Las Vegas. “He’s taken advantage of the cynicism about the process. That appeals to folks who think that all politicians are corrupt and that the system doesn’t work.
“I think he’s going to play it,” Damore said, “as long as it goes.”
“His opponents are going to have to press him on it soon or else it is going to be too late.” Robert Oldendick, University of South Carolina professor