A lottery ‘wild card’
New learning curve awaits in pros
Two days before the biggest day of his life, a soon-to-be NBA lottery pick visited the Marshall Chess Club in Greenwich Village.
It was the eve of the ninth annual New York International, one of the country’s preeminent tournaments, and chess masters were surveying the venue. The captain of his middle-school chess team long before he was an NBA prospect, Jaylen Brown challenged a 9-year-old national
champion named Nico Chasin to a game.
“Nico beat him pretty soundly, but Jaylen was super respectful about it,” said Bryan Quick, the Marshall Chess Club’s executive director. “It was just nice to see he wasn’t afraid to take on anybody, even a third-grader.”
It is this willingness to shun societal norms that makes Brown one of the NBA draft’s more polarizing figures. Though some front offices appreciate that the former Cal forward is well-rounded, others question his love for basketball. Though some respect that he navigated the draft process without an agent, others wonder whether he is too bullheaded to take direction.
All teams agree on Brown’s physical tools: At 6-foot-7, 233 pounds with only 5.1 percent body fat, he is among the best athletes to enter the draft in recent memory. Whichever franchise uses an early pick Thursday on Brown, who didn’t respond to interview requests for this story, will do so hoping that his game will catch up with his natural gifts.
“I think he’s a wild card because he’s a guy teams try to convince themselves into falling in love with,” said an NBA scout whose team is drafting in the lottery. “He has the look of an NBA superstar, but he just hasn’t had the production to back it up.”
Strong predraft workouts have solidified Brown as a top-10 selection. He so impressed the Celtics, owners of the No. 3 pick, in his first audition that they brought him back for a second this week. The consensus among NBA insiders is that Brown probably won’t fall past No. 8 to the Kings, who value his length and ability as a defender.
But even teams infatuated with the Pac-12 Freshman of the Year recognize that he is a boom-or-bust proposition. In his lone season with the Bears, he shot 29.4 percent from threepoint range and 65.4 percent from the foul line while committing a teamhigh 108 fouls. Brown averaged 7.8 points on 10-for-48 shooting over his final five games. With Tyrone Wallace and Jabari Bird sidelined for the first round of the NCAA Tournament, he stumbled through a fourpoint, seven-turnover nightmare in a loss to Hawaii.
Analytics, which more and more NBA teams embrace as gospel, paint Brown as a potential cautionary tale. In the stats-only portion of ESPN Insider analyst Kevin Pelton’s draft projections, Brown ranks 101st among all drafteligible prospects with a WARP (wins above replacement player) of minus-0.5.
Only two players taken in the top 10 since 2006 — Joe Alexander (eighth pick, 2008) and Austin Rivers (10th pick, 2012) — had a negative WARP, per ESPN. Six years removed from his last NBA game, Alexander is laboring overseas. Rivers seemed headed for an early NBA exit before his father, Clippers head coach Doc Rivers, resuscitated his career.
ESPN’s analytics group puts Brown’s chances of being a bust within his first five seasons at 38 percent, nearly five times as likely as him becoming an All-Star in that same span. The numbers suggest he is more apt to earn the draft’s worst label than become a bench player (34 percent) or starter (21 percent).
Said the NBA scout who asked not to be named: “I think a team in the top 10 is probably going to say, ‘You know what? He may not love the game, he may be kind of a different guy and he may not get along great with his teammates, but you could look at the draft over the past two or three years, and you may not find a guy with the physical profile that he has, so let’s roll the dice.’ ”
In a landscape built on bravado, Brown is a deepthinking introvert. He interviewed five wellknown agents before deciding to rely on a close circle of advisers in the lead-up to the draft. Unlike most potential lottery picks, who wore slacks and dress shirts to interview with front offices at the NBA draft combine last month, Brown donned a suit and tie. Some teams were surprised when he arrived, pen and notepad in hand.
Brown spurned draft-oriented workout facilities to train at Cal’s oncampus recreation center. Though NBA agent Aaron Goodwin helped him with his Adidas deal, Brown will consult the National Basketball Players Association while finalizing his rookie deal.
“There are a lot of politics already, and he hasn’t been drafted yet,” said Cal forward Ivan Rabb, who bypassed a possible lottery selection to return for his sophomore season. “I know he’s been going through a lot, but he’s handled it well.”
Said Brown to NBA TV: “For me, it’s all a learning experience. Everything is educational. When I’m going in, I want to understand the politics. I want to understand everything, so I can put myself in a position to be successful.”
On Monday, Brown called the Marshall Chess Club to ask if he could stop by the historic nonprofit organization on New York City’s West 10th Street. The next afternoon, accompanied by his brother and two cousins, he peppered Quick with questions during a guided tour. Nearly two hours and numerous chess games had passed by the time Brown said his goodbyes.
“I think it’s fantastic for the league to have such a thoughtful person joining it,” said Quick, a self-described NBA fan who plans to attend the draft Thursday night at Brooklyn’s Barclays Center. “Just based off meeting him, Jaylen’s someone I feel invested in now. I want to see him succeed.”