Brighter outlook for GOP to hold on to U.S. Senate
WASHINGTON — Republicans’ chances of holding the U.S. Senate are improving considerably, thanks to Hillary Clinton’s sliding popularity, strong campaigns by Republican candidates and a GOP fundraising surge.
Just a few months ago, Republicans were fretting that a backlash against their presidential candidate, Donald Trump, could cost them the Senate.
Now, two races Democrats have long targeted — Ohio and Florida — have started to slip away, as have Arizona and Iowa, where top Senate Republicans John McCain and Charles Grassley have built double-digit leads in recent polls.
“The now-tight presidential race suggests that perhaps Clinton could pull off a narrow victory that still allows the GOP to hold the Senate,” wrote Larry Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley of the University of Virginia Center for Politics as they moved four Senate races in the Republicans’ direction.
The shift marks a dramatic reversal for Senate Democrats, who have gone from hoping for an anti-Trump-fueled electoral wave to insisting that their darkening poll numbers, dragged down by Clinton’s unpopularity, aren’t accurate.
Senate Democrats also say a big fundraising haul for Republicans is to blame.
“The big Republican donors that give dark money, the Koch brothers and all the rest of them, they’re panicky about Donald Trump, so they’re all in with Mitch McConnell and Republican senators,” Sen. Claire McCaskill of Missouri said last week, referring to the Senate majority leader.
“We don’t have as many of those types that have real huge money and can give lots of money. The ones that we have are also panicked about Donald Trump and they’re giving to Hillary Clinton.”
To be sure, there are bright spots for the Democrats too — a poll over the weekend showed Sen. Pat Toomey trailing Katie McGinty by five points in Pennsylvania, and Democratic challengers have led narrowly in some polls in North Carolina and Missouri.
Democrats still have far more pickup opportunities than Republicans, and a swing in their favor of a few points could still net them several more seats than the four they need to win the majority if Clinton wins the White House.
Yet concerns about the Republican fundraising advantage are a refrain heard from many lawmakers.
“The dark money is really swamping these Senate races, and the question is can we garner enough resources — we’ll never garner as much as they have — but can we garner enough resources that we can at least get our message through. If we can, we’ll be fine and we’ll take the Senate,” McCaskill said.