As offense has struggled, fingers point at Gabbert
After playing down to expectations in road games against the past two NFC champions, 49ers quarterback Blaine Gabbert returns home Sunday to face an opponent with two playoff wins since 1996.
Memo to Gabbert: This is an opportune time to make a statement about why you should stay the starter.
In the six days before
Sunday’s meeting against the Cowboys, head coach Chip Kelly fielded 13 questions about backup quarterback Colin Kaepernick. The gist of those queries: When will he replace Gabbert, who posted a 59.6 passer rating in 19-point losses to the Panthers and Seahawks?
On Monday, Kelly provided his most transparent answer when asked a when-will-Kaepernick-get-his-chance question. The gist of his response: Gabbert will keep his job if he plays better.
“We’ll just see how we go offensively,” Kelly said. “I mean, if we score 65 touchdowns next week, then I don’t see (Kaepernick) getting a shot.”
Gabbert doesn’t need to do the impossible, but he
does need to at least jump from abysmal to average Sunday to change the conversation.
That appears possible against Dallas, which ranks 22nd in the NFL in yards allowed per game and doesn’t have a 2015 first- or secondteam All-Pro on its defense. In contrast, Seattle (first in yards allowed) and Carolina (third) each had three 2015 All-Pros headlining its defense.
As a result, Gabbert’s performance evoked memories of his three-year tenure with Jacksonville, for whom the 2011 No. 10 overall pick played so poorly that the 49ers surrendered just a sixth-round pick to acquire him in 2014.
Gabbert referenced his forgettable history Thursday as he fielded questions about his recent performances.
“It’s not my first rodeo going through this,” Gabbert said. “Everybody has their own opinions. Everybody has the best answers for what’s going on.”
Given Gabbert’s painful past, this is hardly how the 49ers would have scripted their first three games. After a 28-0 season-opening win over the Rams, ESPN’s Steve Young, who was a color analyst for the game, said Gabbert’s psyche was a concern entering the regular season.
“The people around there every day kind of describe Blaine as somebody that is — take this the right way — an abused quarterback,” Young said on KNBR. “Somebody who has been beat up emotionally, mentally, and because of that has unusual responses because there’s not a sense of confidence.”
Gabbert’s most obvious “unusual response” is his habit of throwing third-down completions that don’t net first downs.
This season, only eight of his 17 third-down completions have resulted in a first down. Of the 30 quarterbacks who have at least 10 third-down completions, Gabbert’s first-down percentage (47.1) ranks 27th. Of those 30 quarterbacks, Gabbert ranks 28th in third-down completion percentage (53.1), 29th in passer rating (56.3) and 30th in yards per attempt (2.7).
Early in the fourth quarter of Sunday’s loss in Seattle, the 49ers trailed 37-3 and were 0-for-10 on third down.
Kelly has done his best to protect Gabbert against the avalanche of criticism. Kelly doesn’t call out players publicly, but, without mentioning players by name, he’s pointed to mistakes by running back Carlos Hyde and wide receiver Quinton Patton to illustrate that offensive failings aren’t solely the quarterback’s responsibility.
“It’s not like the offensive line’s playing tremendous, the running backs are doing everything, the wide receivers are doing everything and we’re just not getting good quarterback play,” Kelly said.
Kelly presumably wants to give Gabbert a fair chance before making a change, and the schedule should provide an opportunity for improvement. The 49ers play four of their next five games at home, and four of those contests are against teams that didn’t make the playoffs in 2015.
Still, there seems to be an air of inevitability about Kaepernick eventually getting his chance. Why hasn’t it already happened? Kelly hasn’t invoked a belief in Gabbert, but instead has noted Kaepernick hasn’t recaptured his speed, arm strength and previous playing weight of 225 pounds after rehabbing from three surgeries for most of the offseason.
“Is he the same player that he was when he was running 4.5 and throwing the ball all over the place?” Kelly said. “He’s not that guy right now because he’s not where he was physically. You can just look at him physically. He’s not the same guy right now.
“That doesn’t mean he can’t be the same guy, and he’s working as hard as anybody I’ve ever been around to get back to be that right now.”
It could be inferred that Kelly is prepared to insert Kaepernick once he hits those physical benchmarks.
Of course, he’s also noted that his current starter controls his fate: Gabbert can end the Kaepernick questions by making a statement.