Team’s 2013 draft class short on stars
In April, as 49ers general manager Trent Baalke was being questioned about his recent drafts, he cautioned against a rush to judgment.
Baalke said college players were leaving school earlier than their predecessors and entering the NFL younger and less polished. In addition, he noted that many prospects played in systems, such as the increasingly popular spread offense, that don’t have NFL-level sophistication.
His message: Be patient, folks, before writing off his recent draft picks.
“I think Bill Walsh said it a long time ago — two years. Give them two full years,” Baalke said. “Well, now I don’t think it’s two years: Now I think it’s three years. When you look at a majority of players, how many first-round picks come into the NFL now and make an immediate impact? How many secondround picks? League-wide? Just start breaking that down.”
Given Baalke’s timeline, it’s now more than fair to start breaking down his 2013 draft, which consists of players who have been in the NFL for threeplus seasons. Three years ago, Baalke selected 11 players, including four in the top 100, and their contributions during this season’s 1-6 start help explain why he’s become the primary target for frustrated fans.
Baalke’s page on Wikipedia has been vandalized so often this month that Wikipedia put a temporary ban on edits last week. On Monday, NinersFans.com reported that a plane carrying an anti-Baalke banner (#FireTrent) will fly over Levi’s Stadium before the 49ers’ next game, against the Saints on Nov. 6. The flyover was made possible by a GoFundMe.com campaign by fans.
The news came on the heels of the 49ers’ sixth straight loss, 34-17 to Tampa Bay, in which the five remaining players from the 2013 draft class were on the 46-man roster: safety Eric Reid (first round), outside linebacker Tank Carradine (second round), tight end Vance McDonald (second round), wide receiver Quinton Patton (fourth round) and defensive tackle Quinton Dial (fifth round).
Of that quintet, Reid, a fouryear starter in the midst of a down season, and Dial, a 28game starter who was the 157th overall pick, could be safely classified as solid selections.
The others? McDonald, Carradine and Patton entered 2016 as disappointments, but it could be argued that circumstances had held them back. However, they’ve failed to change perceptions this season, despite having prime opportunities to do so. Consider: Carradine had legitimate reasons for his invisibility (39 tackles, four sacks) since he was selected No. 40 overall. In 2013, he didn’t play because of a torn ACL he suffered in college. And for most of the next two seasons he played defensive tackle, a position for which he was ill-suited.
Late in 2015, the 49ers moved Carradine to outside linebacker, a spot that more closely mirrored his defensive-end duties at Florida State, and the move appeared inspired. In the preseason, he collected 10 tackles, two sacks and three quarterback hits and, as a result, earned a modest one-year contract extension in early September.
With outside linebacker Aaron Lynch serving a seasonopening, four-game suspension, Carradine had a chance to fill a pass-rushing void, but his disappointing season (six tackles, no sacks) bottomed out in Week 7: Carradine, who was healthy, didn’t play a defensive snap.
McDonald had provided unreliable hands and modest production (40 catches) in his first three seasons, but he entered this year as the Week 1 starter for the first time in his career.
With Vernon Davis gone, however, he’s had just eight catches for 142 yards and two touchdowns in five games (he missed two with a hip injury). In Week 7, he had one catch for 24 yards and a drop on six targets.
McDonald, the fourth tight end selected in 2013, has the 10th-most receptions among the tight ends in his draft class.
Patton’s first three seasons included just 36 catches, but limited snaps.
However, Michael Crabtree is now with the Raiders, Anquan Boldin is playing for the Lions, and Patton hasn’t produced much (19 catches, 187 yards) in his first season as a starter. Patton hasn’t shown the strength to consistently beat press coverage, or the speed to run away from defensive backs.
The bottom line: Baalke had 18 draft picks from 2012-13 — nine in the first four rounds — and only two of the five who remain on the roster can currently be deemed decent picks.
What about his 33 picks since 2014? Nineteen are on the 53-man roster and six are on injured reserve or the practice squad, but they’ve yet to play the three full seasons Baalke believes is needed to properly assess them.
The obvious issue for Baalke, of course, is there’s no guarantee that he’ll be around to see how those players develop.