Best shots to win NCAAs
Two of the four teams with the best odds to win the NCAA men’s college basketball tournament play this week in the West Regional in San Jose.
The Arizona Wildcats and Gonzaga Bulldogs, both at 6-to-1 to win the title, play at SAP Center on Thursday, March 23, with Gonzaga a three-point favorite over the West Virginia Mountaineers, and Arizona a 7½-point favorite over the Xavier Musketeers. If both favorites win, Arizona will meet Gonzaga on Saturday, March 25, also in San Jose.
After the first rounds of play last weekend, the North Carolina Tar Heels emerged as the overall favorite to win the NCAA title at 7-to-2, according to the sports book at Wynn Las Vegas. Next are the Kansas Jayhawks at 4-to-1.
Other teams with a strong shot at winning the tournament are the Kentucky Wildcats and UCLA Bruins, both at 7-to-1. The Oregon Ducks are a long shot at 20-to-1, after losing one of their best players to injury just before the tournament.
Another long shot that made it to the Round of 16 are the Wisconsin Badgers at 20-to-1. The Badgers upset top-ranked Villanova on Saturday, March 18, and have a number of veterans with experience in the tournament.
“Wisconsin has been around awhile,” said Johnny Avello, Wynn’s top oddsmaker. “Experience goes a long way in this tournament — you gotta know what needs to be done.”
It’s shaping up as a good year for Western squads as two of the six teams with the lowest odds are in the Pac-12 (Arizona and UCLA). And Gonzaga, located in Spokane, Wash., is another strong contender.
In the NCAA women’s basketball tournament, the Connecticut Huskies are the overwhelming favorite to win it all.
One proposition bet “covers it all,” Avello said. “Will UConn win the women’s championship: Yes minus-400, No plus-320.” That means one would need to bet $400 on UConn to win just $100.
Stanford won Monday, March 20, to remain in the tournament and resume play Friday, March 24, against the Texas Longhorns. (Odds for that game and for Stanford’s title hopes were unavailable at press time.)
Last week, before the men’s Round of 64, I espoused a theory that underdogs are a good bet on the first day (not the whole first round) of the tournament (not including the play-in games). Let’s see whether the theory panned out.
On Thursday, March 16, there were 16 games: Factoring in the point spread, the favorites won six games, underdogs won nine, and there was one push (tie). If you’d bet $100 on each game you’d have won $900 on the underdogs and lost $660 on the favorites (which includes the 10 percent cut for the house), a net gain of $240 with a betting system that requires no decisions — a 13.6 percent return on your money in a day.
This year the strategy worked, but as they say: Past performance is no guarantee of future results.