Amid U.S. uncertainty, Russia resurrects interest

WASHINGTON — As America’s 16-year war in Afghanistan drags on, Russia is resurrecting its own interest in the “graveyard of empires.” The jockeying includes engaging the Taliban and leading a new diplomatic effort to tackle Afghanistan’s future, all while Washington leaves the world guessing on its strategy for ending the conflict.

Uncertain of Moscow’s intentions, the Trump administration will stay away when Russia hosts regional powers China, India, Iran and Pakistan, and several Central Asian countries, for another set of Afghan talks next month. Afghanistan’s government is attending, but the U.S. declined an invitation, saying it wasn’t consulted ahead of time. No one has invited the Taliban.

For Russia, dogged by memories of the Soviet Union’s disastrous, 1980s occupation of Afghanistan, it’s a surprising turn at the head of the country’s proverbial peace table. And it coincides with the Kremlin’s campaign to wield greater international authority at the United States’ expense elsewhere, including intervening in Syria’s war and pushing for a settlement on President Bashar Assad’s and its own terms. Moscow even has sought to broker new Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, challenging Washington’s grip on the Mideast peace process.

For the United States, the new Russian foray into Afghanistan may represent another worrying consequence of a perceived American retrenchment. The perception has intensified overseas as President Trump formulates new policy. Since taking office, he has scarcely mentioned Afghanistan, the U.S. military’s largest deployment in a war zone.

“Russia sees a gap and is trying to fill it,” said Jonah Blank, a South Asia expert at the RAND Corp. “It’s looking around for opportunities, for any place where it can expand its own influence and freedom to pursue its own interests, and undermine U.S. alliances and partnerships.” President Vladimir Putin’s government is an unlikely peace broker in Afghanistan, but the Afghans are grappling with great uncertainty.

They’re waiting to see if Washington sends more troops — as Gen. John Nicholson, top U.S. military commander in Afghanistan, advocates — or adjusts strategy amid increased Taliban attacks and Afghan military setbacks. In the past year, insurgents have sought to overrun several provincial capitals. Last week, they captured a southern district in Helmand province, which American and British troops fought bitterly to give to the government. The U.S. maintains 8,400 troops in Afghanistan, training local forces and conducting counterterrorism operations.

Of the Russians, Andrew Kuchins at Georgetown University said: “They want to be in the game for whatever the resolution is in Afghanistan.”