Big push for early primary in 2020
Moving it up from June would give state more say in presidential race
California is once again looking to move its June presidential primary to an earlier — and, it is hoped, more influential — date in the 2020 election season.
The reasoning is simple. In most years, the race for the presidential nomination is all but over by the time Californians vote. A move to March, or even earlier, would force candidates to pay more attention to the state and its concerns.
“You don’t have to look farther than 2016 to see that California is an afterthought for presidential candidates,” said Assemblyman Kevin Mullin, D-San Mateo, whose AB84 would move California’s presidential primary to the first Tuesday after the first Monday in March, typically known as Super Tuesday for the crush of states holding elections. With an earlier primary, “candidates would ignore California at their peril.”
That’s also the argument for SB568 by state Sen. Ricardo Lara, D-Bell Gardens (Los Angeles County), which is designed
to make California’s primary the third stop in the nation, behind only the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary.
It would move the presidential primary to either the third Tuesday of March or, far more likely, an earlier date selected by the governor to get the state near the front of the election line.
“California is first in the nation when it comes to our economy, our population and our innovations, but we’re dead last in the presidential primary calendar,” Lara said in a statement. “It’s time for Californians to have a louder voice about who is going to lead our country.”
Those same arguments were made in 1996, when the primary was moved to March 26. And they were ignored in 2011, when Gov. Jerry Brown signed a bill passed overwhelmingly by the Legislature that moved the 2012 primary back to June.
The argument then was that it was too expensive to hold a split primary, as in 2008, with the early presidential vote and then a separate election for legislative and congressional seats in June. Both new proposals would combine all primaries in March.
“Every new cadre of politicians is looking for a day in the sunshine,” said Bob Mulholland, a California member of the Democratic National Committee who has been a delegate to 11 national conventions. “But we need to remind people of the process and what has happened in the past.”
There’s nothing sacred about a June primary. From 1914 until 1944, California’s primary elections were held in either May or August before settling in 1946 on the first Tuesday in June.
There was nothing settled about the modern run of early primaries, though. From late March in 1996, it was shifted to the first week of March in 2000 and 2004 before jumping all the way to Feb. 5, the earliest date ever, in 2008.
The political battle that year shows some of the unintended consequences that could follow California’s new attempt to jump the primary election queue.
“Moving a primary around is always a political decision,” said Matt Barreto, a professor of political science and Chicano studies at UCLA. “It’s natural for states to want to move up and get more attention, but there are a limited number of days available.”
It was front-loading politics run wild in 2008, with eight states set to hold their primaries on Feb. 5, the earliest day then allowed by the national parties for most state primaries. But 15 other states, including California, then moved to that date, with others, including Florida, Michigan and South Carolina, defying party leaders and scheduling their elections in January.
A similar game of political leapfrog could take place if California tries to become No. 3 in primary season.
“Our goal is to move the primary earlier,” said Jesse Melgar, a spokesman for Secretary of State Alex Padilla, who is supporting Lara’s bill. “The earlier we are, the better it is for California.”
An early California primary also could force major changes in the way presidential campaigns are run, which is exactly what Mullin and Lara are hoping.
“We could see candidates engaging in town halls and talking with voters,” Mullin said. “They’ll be forced to debate on issues important to California, like climate change and transportation.”
Putting a huge, racially and culturally diverse state like California in the early primary mix would also provide an important shift from the small, rural and heavily white states like New Hampshire and Iowa, which now have national clout that far outweighs their size.
“It’s good to have a diversity of states with different types of voters” in the early primaries, Barreto said. An early California primary “would give candidates a chance to prove themselves as someone who can run a campaign on a large scale.”
That’s also a potential problem. The local town halls, coffee shop meet-ups and one-on-one campaigning that are now hallmarks of the early presidential run in Iowa and New Hampshire allow a little-known candidate to catch fire and build up both recognition and support.
But that type of retail campaigning doesn’t translate to running in California, where pricey 30-second TV spots substitute for the low-cost personal contact that’s impossible in a sprawling state with almost 10 percent of the nation’s 200 million registered voters.
An early California primary “could eliminate any grassroots candidates,” Mulholland said. “They won’t be able to afford to campaign in California.”
That’s one of a number of things party officials will consider when they begin to put together the rules for the 2020 primaries. Officials at the Democratic National Committee said they are aware of California’s potential changes, but are waiting for a final bill to pass before making any comment.
That could be happening soon. Lara’s bill passed unanimously out of the elections committee in April and should soon move to the Senate floor for a vote. Mullin’s bill also is moving through the Assembly.
Whatever happens, though, California is too big and carries too much weight to be ignored, regardless of when its primary is held.
“We’re the 800-pound gorilla,” Mulholland said, “whether we show up late to the party or early.”