President’s backflip on trade
President Trump is easing back from a needless trade war with Canada and Mexico, a decision that should bring relief in all three countries. But his brinkmanship is a reminder of how unpredictable his judgment is on a world stage that demands order and restraint.
The president’s backflips aren’t new. He’s gone from foe to friend of the NATO military alliance, backpedaled for now on a border wall and eased up on threats to dump the Iran nuclear plan. First impressions and pledges often melt away, especially as the weight of White House duties sinks in.
So his turnabout on the North American Free Trade Agreement isn’t a total surprise. During his run for office, he denounced it as as “disaster” and the “worst trade deal ever,” remarks that indicated he would trash NAFTA as soon as possible.
But he isn’t, at least for now. In a confusing span of just a few hours, his aides suggested he was moving to pull out of the tariff-reducing deal that he blamed for job flight. But then Trump swung the other way. He told the top leaders in Canada and Mexico in phone calls that he will stick with the pact. He later added a cautionary tweet that if future talks didn’t work out, he’d move to withdraw. Diplomatic whiplash ensued.
Where he stands and what he thinks remain a mystery. His card table bluffing may be suited for property deals in his past life, but they don’t work now. Throwing out hints he would cancel NAFTA and then recanting quickly in calls to Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was irresponsible and damaging.
The charitable approach is to never take the canny president at his word and wait him out. In NAFTA’s case, the thriving commerce between the three nations has deepened after 23 years of existence, making a wholesale cancellation nearly impossible. Tweaking the deal is something all sides are willing to consider after more than two decades of experience.
That mend-not-end approach seems to be Trump’s view now. But it’s hard to depend on that view. In his world, there are no guarantees, only opportunities to exploit and test, never mind the past. For now NAFTA survives, assuring commerce between this country and two of its largest trading partners. That’s one consolation in a confusing picture.