Middle-round picks can be so valuable

Have you started obsessing over your first-round pick yet? Will it be Bell or Brown? Jordy or Jordan? A.J. or Ajayi?

That’s fine, but that decision pales in comparison with the handful of choices you’ll make several rounds later. After all, as happy as you might be to land Melvin Gordon, Michael Thomas or Matt Ryan now, they won’t be the bargains they were last year for the savvy players who stole them in the middle rounds (or later) and rode them into the postseason.

Smart fantasy players know the secret to great drafting is not simply choosing the best players available, but doing so no earlier than necessary. You might share my belief that Jamison Crowder is on the verge of a breakout season, but you’re hurting yourself — and, worse yet, begging for ridicule from your opponents — if you pull the trigger too early.

So, who are this year’s hidden gems … the players poised to significantly outperform their average draft positions? Let’s take a look at my Sleeper Picks of 2017, broken down by position. Deshaun Watson, QB, Texans: If anyone is positioned to significantly outperform his average draft position, it’s Watson. Like Dak Prescott, Watson has the “it” factor, and he can compensate for any weaknesses in his passing game by scoring regularly as a rusher. C.J. Anderson, RB, Broncos: Denver will be a run-centric offense, and Anderson will be its centerpiece. Jamaal Charles is on his last legs, and Devontae Booker is still nursing a wrist injury. Danny Woodhead, RB, Ravens: In PPR leagues, Woodhead very easily could finish the season as the most valuable back in Baltimore. Woodhead will be a perfect outlet option for Joe Flacco, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him seize a large share of the rushing workload as well. Frank Gore, RB, Colts: When will we learn? Gore is as unexciting as rushers get, but he’s still locked in as the starter on a good offense, and his biggest competition is his age. He’s coming off yet another 1,000-yard season, and he hasn’t missed a game since 2010. He’ll be a reliable RB3. Jamison Crowder, WR, Washington: With the departures of DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon, Crowder is Kirk Cousins’ most familiar, and reliable, target left. I named him “Most Likely to Succeed” in my end-of-season awards in January. Tyrell Williams, WR, Chargers: The clock is already ticking on Keenan Allen’s next injury, rookie Mike Williams might not hit the field until October and Travis Benjamin is little more than a deep-ball threat. That leaves all kinds of room for Williams to reprise his 1,000-yard season of 2016. He’s a steal in the 100-pick range. Cole Beasley, WR, Cowboys: Easily overlooked among Dallas’ higher-profile players, Beasley is the secret sauce that keeps the chains moving. Prescott loves him and opposing defenses underestimate him, just like your fantasy competitors. Taylor Gabriel, WR, Falcons: Unlike Mohamed Sanu, Gabriel managed to prosper in Julio Jones’ shadow in his first season in Atlanta. Look for him to take another step forward as a speedy, sure-handed option for Ryan. Adam Thielen, WR, Vikings: You won’t ever see me gush over Minnesota’s passing offense, but Thielen managed to make chicken salad out of chicken scratch last season. Stefon Diggs is being drafted several rounds earlier, but Thielen represents much better value. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals: Three words to remember while watching the future Hall of Famer slide in your draft: Never underestimate Fitz. Austin Hooper, TE, Falcons: Every fantasy team should have a stake in the Atlanta passing game, and the Stanford alum is a value option. He showed flashes as a rookie, and now that Jacob Tamme has departed, Hooper has the starting role all to himself.

Follow Ladd Biro at fantasy-fools.blogspot.com, on Facebook and via Twitter @ladd_biro.