Game’s trend toward power won’t last forever
As the Giants ask for patience while promising significant changes for 2018, it seems appropriate to call up a history lesson.
There once was a batting coach named Walt Hriniak, and his teachings were all the rage in the late 20th century. A disciple of Charlie Lau, a legend in the art, Hriniak taught hitters to unleash a flat, level swing, if not a chop-down approach conducive to back-spinning line drives and, ideally, power.
The theory gained widespread acceptance, but several critics, including the great Ted Williams, scoffed at Hriniak’s notion of the followthrough: an absurd variation of mechanics that found hitters staring at the ground with their
bat pointed to the sky. As some of us noted at the time, these guys looked like they were trying to peer under a refrigerator and kill a fly on the ceiling at the same time.
Eventually, Hriniak’s methods faded into obscurity. They were just too radical, too demanding, not to mention unsightly. And as the Giants’ brain trust took questions during the season-ending news conference Tuesday — Brian Sabean, Larry Baer, Bobby Evans and Bruce Bochy at the podium — one sensed a belief that baseball’s current trend might not have staying power, either.
The Giants should hope so. Confined to the spacious dimensions of AT&T Park, and wedded to the idea of smart, fundamental hitting (think three World Series titles), the Giants won’t be joining the major leagues’ dramatic power upswing anytime soon.
Without question, they’ll give it a shot. They’ll see if they have a chance to trade for Giancarlo Stanton, or to sign Japan’s Shohei Ohtani if he decides to join the major leagues next year. A number of free agents, notably outfielder J.D. Martinez and third baseman Mike Moustakas, are likely to be on the Giants’ radar. Just one power hitter with “presence,” as Evans noted, could make a world of difference.
It would be a pipe dream imagining a revamped lineup cranking out 20-homer seasons from five hitters. The ballpark and roster configuration simply won’t allow it. But listen to executives around the game: In off-the-record comments, they’re very skeptical about the “launch angle” revolution that produced home runs in record numbers.
It’s a simple theory: Forget groundballs and go deep. That’s where the money is. Shortsighted thinkers might believe it will be this way in the major leagues forever, with a homer-or-strikeout mentality dominating the thought process of every single team. Don’t believe it.
For every Josh Donaldson, Justin Turner or Kris Bryant, who turn that approach into a devastating arsenal, there are players such as Joey Gallo and Jose Bautista, who dazzle their fans with long-distance homers but fall dreadfully short in the crucial categories of on-base percentage, balls put in play and OPS. Devotees of the radical uppercut are embarrassingly vulnerable to the high strike, which isn’t always called (but should be) and which figures to be a significant option among pitchers counteracting the trend.
Williams, were he still with us, would undoubtedly make it clear: For most hitters, beware the dead end. A slight uppercut works just fine. And in the meantime, think what else you can do besides go deep. (In 1941, while leading the American League with 37 homers, Williams hit .406 and struck out only 27 times in 606 plate appearances. Yes, that actually happened.)
There is no one even close to Williams on the Giants’ roster, but I’d bet Teddy Ballgame would tell Sabean, Evans and Bochy to stick to what works in AT&T Park. Strikeouts are
OK. There’s nothing cool about a swing-and-a-miss flourish with runners at second and third. I’d be willing to wager that, within five years, the homer totals will swing downward and situational hitting will come back into favor — probably because the World Series winner (think Cleveland or Houston this year, should it come to that) takes the launch-angle process only so far.
Bottom-line stuff for the moment: If the Marlins would be willing to absorb a chunk of Stanton’s contract (10 more years, $295 million), the Giants will be in play. Evans said they will be “aggressive” in their pursuit of Ohtani if he becomes available. The Giants’ payroll has soared into luxurytax territory the past three seasons, and Baer said the Giants “won’t be afraid” of landing there again. There were hints that Denard Span and Hunter Pence could transition into a left-field platoon, increasing the production at that position and leaving room for a defensive upgrade in center field and right.
Pablo Sandoval will get a shot at third, but so will Christian Arroyo. Promising outfielders Chris Shaw and Steven Duggar will be closely watched in the Arizona Fall League. Free-agent options will be explored. Although fans surely will be skeptical about a news conference that revealed essentially nothing, Evans said, “There are needs that have to be addressed. We can’t come back next season with the same roster and expect different results. We need an infusion of talent and production.”
Sabean issued a reminder that “home runs aside — and I know everybody is desperate to know how we can add that — we place a huge emphasis, past and present, on timely hitting. It’s a formula that works if you have the pitching and defense. When you consider that our No. 1-2 starters got hurt (Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto), as well as our closer (Mark Melancon), this year became a recipe for disaster. The autopsy has been going on for months. Fortunately, the patient didn’t die.”
The sense I got, from all four men Tuesday, is that the Giants are asking fans for patience — and perspective. Attendance won’t be an issue; the team drew 3.3 million fans in a terrible season and AT&T Park will be a vibrant, thriving baseball palace indefinitely. The Giants won’t be afraid to spend or take risks. As Sabean said, “We’re not last-place people, and we’re not a lastplace organization.”
Let’s see how the team looks in spring training before drawing any grand conclusions. And try not to get too caught up in the sight of hitters coming out of their shoes, looking as if they’d rather strike out or hit a harmless flyball than get a runner home from third with one out. Baseball has a marvelous knack for self-correction.